215 
FXUS62 KMLB 110150
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
950 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Center of Hurricane Michael over SW GA as of mid evng, tracking NE at 
15KTS. Storm inflow will maintain a brisk S/SW flow thru the H100-
H70 lyr acrs central FL overnight, gradually diminishing as the 
cyclone weakens and lifts into the Carolinas. Latest RAP40 analysis 
shows the bulk of the mid lvl vorticity/upr lvl divergence lifting 
out of central FL, though lcl mid lvl omega fields are still 
positive.  Recent radar/sat imagery shows a convective flare up over 
SW FL trying to work its way into the east central peninsula, but 
struggling to do so as peripheral subsidence on Michael's SE flank 
becomes increasingly strong.

Low/mid lvl moisture remains quite high with H100-H70 mean RH values 
btwn 80-90pct overhead, decreasing to 75-80pct upstream...H85-H50 
avg dewpoint depressions btwn 2-3C over I-4 Corridor/Space Coast 
region, increasing to 3-5C over the Treasure Coast/Lake-O region. 
Mid lvl temps clearly mark the tropical nature of the overhead 
airmass with H70 temps btwn 10-11C, H50 temps btwn -4/-5C...evng 
RAOBs confirm this with PWat values btwn 2.00"-2.25" over south FL, 
increasing to 2.25"-2.50" over central/north FL. 

High moisture content will require at some precip chances to remain 
overnight. However, radar/sat trends suggest the diminishing 
chances. Furthermore, H70 temps suggest a mid lvl thermal cap that 
will be difficult for any convective columns to penetrate, 
especially as Michael's peripheral subsidence increasingly squashes 
mid lvl dynamic lift.  Evng update will reduce PoPs to slgt chc of 
shras areawide, will remove mention of tsras.  Quite muggy overnight 
as mid/upr lvl cloud decks a steady (albeit diminishing) southerly 
winds combine to keep min temps in the M/U70s, portions of the 
immediate coast may fail to drop blo 80F. 

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 12/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 11/12Z...coastal sites S 6-10KTS...interior sites 
S/SW 5-8KTS. Btwn 11/12Z-11/15Z...bcmg S/SW 8-12KTS with ocnl sfc 
G18-22KTS. Btwn 11/18Z-18/21Z...bcmg W/SW 8-12KTS. 

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 11/12Z...cigs btwn FL100-120 lcl cigs btwn FL060-
080...slgt chc MVFR shras. Aft 11/12Z...cigs AOA FL120...chc MVFR 
shras/slgt chc IFR tsras. 

&&

.MARINE...
Poor to hazardous conditions overnight as Michael moves into the 
Carolinas. Moderate to fresh S/SW breeze will continue, but will 
slowly diminish in the predawn hrs as the lcl pressure gradient 
relaxes. Latest data buoys/C-MAN network showing strongest winds and 
highest seas have pushed offshore and north of Sebastian Inlet, in 
agreement with the current advisory/cautionary configuration.  No 
sig changes necessary with the evng update.   

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach 
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach 
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard 
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Bragaw/Volkmer