671 FXUS62 KMLB 102017 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 417 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... Major Hurricane Michael made landfall as an almost Cat 5 hurricane earlier this afternoon between St. Vincent Island and Panama City with winds of 150 mph. Michael is forecast to continue speeding across the Florida panhandle and will reach Georgia tonight. As it moves away from Florida, winds will turn from the south to the southwest tonight. The bulk of the moisture will be over east central Florida late this afternoon into the evening which will also match a band of high vorticity over the northern counties north of I-4, where strong activity started to develop a few hours ago. This pattern will continue for the rest of the afternoon into early evening. Another band of slightly high vorticity is shown on GFS to move over east central Florida after midnight but it will be weaker than what we are seeing this afternoon and with less moisture over the area. Previous discussion Thursday...Michael will lift from Georgia into the Carolinas, which will cause local winds to gradually veer from south/southwest to southwest/west. A mid level dry punch will work in, especially across the north half so highest PoPs should be across the south. Though low level winds will be easing to around 20 knots during the afternoon, this is still enough to potentially set up an enhanced moisture convergence band and produce locally heavy rain. The southwest flow will keep max temps above normal, mostly lower 90s, but areas that get the most sun might reach the mid 90s, which would be near record highs. Friday-Tuesday...As Michael lifts northeast from the mid Atlantic coast on Fri, it will drag a weak frontal trough into central Florida on Fri and then hang up over the southern peninsula on Sat. Drying will be the main result with just a minor affect on temperatures, where minimum temperatures could go as low as the mid 60s and upper 60s for the Treasure Coast counties. The drying looks enough to remove PoPs across the north/central Fri- Sat. Remnant moisture left over from the front should lift back northward Sun but PoPs look nothing greater than 30 or 40% through early next week. && .AVIATION... MVFR/brief IFR cigs and visibilities will be possible for the rest of the afternoon and early evening with passing storms. These will be moving towards the NNE at 20 knots and will mainly affect the terminals north of KISM towards KDAB. For the rest of the sites, VCSH through the first part of the night, and becoming more isolated for the rest of the night. && .MARINE... As Michael moves away from Florida, wind flow will shift from the south to southwest overnight. This will subside seas near the coast and advisories could be dropped earlier than previous forecast. keep in mind that seas and wind can be higher near strong thunderstorms, which are expected tonight reaching the coastal waters of east central Florida. Thursday-Friday...Michael lifting northeast to off the mid Atlantic coast on Fri will cause a weak frontal trough to move into the waters. Breezy southwest flow on Thu will gradually diminish and the gradient wind will become light west Fri. Seas up to 5-7 feet offshore on Thu will diminish to 3-4 feet Fri. There will be a chance for offshore moving showers/storms on Thu, especially from Canaveral southward. Then on Fri it looks dry except south of Sebastian Inlet. Weekend...The frontal trough will weaken and a northeast to east wind flow is forecast to develop Sat then become east/southeast Sun. Speeds look to be around 10 knots but 10-15 knots possible offshore. Seas 2 feet near shore and around 3 feet offshore. Higher moisture from the frontal remnant should keep a chance for showers/storms across the south Sat then shifting northward Sun. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 79 92 74 87 / 40 30 10 10 MCO 78 90 74 88 / 40 40 10 10 MLB 79 90 75 87 / 30 40 20 10 VRB 78 91 74 87 / 30 40 20 30 LEE 77 90 73 87 / 40 30 10 10 SFB 78 91 73 88 / 40 40 10 10 ORL 77 90 74 88 / 40 40 10 10 FPR 78 90 74 87 / 30 40 30 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pendergrast LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...99