656 FXUS62 KMLB 100812 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 412 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... ...Hazardous Beach and Boating Conditions Continue Today... Today-Tonight...Hurricane Michael continues to advance north toward the FL Panhandle and is forecast to make landfall as a dangerous Category 4 storm later this afternoon. East central Florida will remain on the periphery of Michael with quick-moving rainbands setting up across the area today. Little change to the current PoP forecast, with likely showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms from Lake Kissimmee northward as Michael gains latitude this afternoon. While showers will move north quickly in low level southerly steering flow of 30-35 kts, brief periods of heavy rainfall are still possible with expected accumulations of 1" (locally higher amounts). Strong southerly flow will contribute to the gust potential in squall-like showers and storms, capable of producing gusts of 40-50 mph. Areas north and west of I-4 remain in a marginal risk for tornadoes as models indicate 0-1 km SRH values approaching 200 m^2/s^2 in Lake and western Volusia counties, leaving the chance for one or two isolated tornadoes. As Michael makes landfall and continues a north/northeast track into SW Georgia, S/SE winds over ECFL veer to S/SW but still maintaining breezy conditions at the surface later tonight. Rain chances will decrease through the evening and overnight as Michael pushes away from the area. Keeping 30% PoPs over northern zones and 40-50% over offshore Atlc waters for lingering marine showers and storms. Above average high temps forecast again Wednesday in the upper 80s along the coast to near 90 for the interior. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 70s with another chance to set warm low records once again. Thursday...Michael will lift from Georgia into the Carolinas, which will cause local winds to gradually veer from south/southwest to southwest/west. A mid level dry punch will work in, especially across the north half so highest PoPs should be across the south. Though low level winds will be easing to around 20 knots during the afternoon, this is still enough to potentially set up an enhanced moisture convergence band and produce locally heavy rain. The southwest flow will keep max temps above normal, mostly lower 90s, but areas that get the most sun might reach the mid 90s, which would be near record highs. Friday-Tuesday...As Michael lifts northeast from the mid Atlantic coast on Fri, it will drag a weak frontal trough into central Florida on Fri and then hang up over the southern peninsula on Sat. Drying will be the main result with just a minor affect on temperatures, though northern areas might see mid 60s for lows Sat morning. The drying looks enough to remove PoPs across the north/central Fri-Sat. Remnant moisture left over from the front should lift back northward Sun but PoPs look nothing greater than 30 or 40% through early next week. && .AVIATION...Low level winds are increasing out of the S/SE as Major Hurricane Michael moves northward over the eastern Gulf. Added LLWS to inland and northern coastal (DAB/TIX) TAF sites for winds off the surface around 30 knots through 14Z. Into late morning/afternoon, sfc winds will become breezy as mixing increases, with speeds to around 13-15 knots out of the S/SE and gusts up to 18-22 knots. Models indicate developing bands of showers and isolated storms into the afternoon hours that may produce strong wind gusts and tempo IFR/MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions persist as Hurricane Michael moves north toward the FL Panhandle. S/SE winds approach 20 kts this afternoon especially north of the Cape with seas 5-6 feet nearshore building to 8 feet well offshore. Gusty showers and storms are likely in squall-like rainbands on the periphery of Michael, moving northward over the Atlc waters, capable of producing gusts over 35 kts. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all zones with the exception of the nearshore Treasure Coast as winds decrease to 10-15 kts and seas remain near 5 ft there. Operators should still exercise caution. Thursday-Friday...Michael lifting northeast to off the mid Atlantic coast on Fri will cause a weak frontal trough to move into the waters. Breezy southwest flow on Thu will gradually diminish and the gradient wind will become light west Fri. Seas up to 5-7 feet offshore on Thu will diminish to 3-4 feet Fri. There will be a chance for offshore moving showers/storms on Thu, especially from Canaveral southward. Then on Fri it looks dry except south of Sebastian Inlet. Weekend...The frontal trough will weaken and a northeast to east wind flow is forecast to develop Sat then become east/southeast Sun. Speeds look to be around 10 knots but 10-15 knots possible offshore. Seas 2 feet near shore and around 3 feet offshore. Higher moisture from the frontal remnant should keep a chance for showers/storms across the south Sat then shifting northward Sun. && .CLIMATE... Fort Pierce tied their record warm minimum temperature of 79 degrees yesterday, last set in 1937. Additionally, the low temperature of 80 degrees Tuesday at Melbourne broke their record warm min temperature of 79 degrees set in 2017. Additional warm minimum temperature records will likely be tied or broken across east central Florida today, especially any sites that miss out on rainfall. DATE HI-MIN DAB 10-Oct 76 2017 MCO 10-Oct 75 2017 SFB 10-Oct 76 2017 MLB 10-Oct 80 2017 VRB 10-Oct 79 2017 FPR 10-Oct 79 1919 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 90 79 92 75 / 60 30 30 10 MCO 89 78 90 75 / 60 30 40 10 MLB 89 79 90 76 / 50 30 50 20 VRB 89 78 91 75 / 50 30 60 20 LEE 89 77 90 74 / 70 40 30 10 SFB 90 78 91 74 / 60 30 40 10 ORL 90 77 90 75 / 60 30 40 10 FPR 88 78 90 75 / 50 30 60 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM....Lascody AVIATION...Weitlich