266 FXUS62 KMLB 100124 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 924 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE... Hurricane Michael will continue to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight with low level southeast winds in the 925-850 mb layer increasing from 20-25 knots to 30-35 knots through the overnight hours and becoming SSE/S toward sunrise. Current convection across southwest Florida will move NNW with short range guidance also indicating an increase in showers later tonight near the Treasure Coast which will also move quickly northward. Appears only marginal low level helicity will exist near the east coast where some late night convection may develop. Slightly higher 0-1km low level helicity will exist across Lake county to 150 m^2/s^2 late, though short range guid does not show much shower development across far interior areas overnight. Will continue low shower chances inland with a potential uptick in showers along the Treasure Coast later tonight. Breezy southeast winds will continue for the Atlantic beaches with 10-15 mph for the cstl counties and around 10 mph inland overnight. Lows will drop into the upper 70s interior to around 80 near the coast. Will allow the High Surt Advisory to end at 10 pm after the high tide cycle this evening. && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conds overnight with short range guidance indicating slightly higher chances for showers to develop for southern Treasure coast terminals late. Breezy SE/SSE winds expected locally Wed as Hrcn Michael approaches the FL panhandle/Big Bend. Should see scattered convection move northward across east central FL into Wed afternoon with tropical moisture and daytime heating. Favored SHRA later in the afternoon for nrn interior and late morning-mid afternoon near the east coast. && .MARINE... Tonight...Will continue SCA for all waters through tonight and then pair back the near shore Treasure coast waters after 4 am to an SCEC. SE winds to 20 knots offshore will becoming SSE toward morning. Seas will range from 6-8 ft offshore to 5-7 ft near shore. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 79 90 78 90 / 20 60 30 40 MCO 77 90 77 90 / 20 60 30 50 MLB 80 90 78 90 / 20 50 20 50 VRB 79 90 78 89 / 30 50 20 60 LEE 78 89 77 89 / 20 60 40 50 SFB 77 90 77 90 / 20 60 30 50 ORL 77 90 77 89 / 20 60 30 50 FPR 79 89 78 89 / 30 50 20 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Volusia County-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard County- Southern Brevard County-St. Lucie. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm. && $$ Volkmer/Weitlich/Rodriguez