999 FXUS62 KMLB 092030 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 430 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 ...Gusty Southeast to South Winds, Especially in Showers and Isolated Storms... ...Hazardous Boating and Beach Conditions Continue... .DISCUSSION... Winds continue to slowly veer through the column this afternoon as Michael gains latitude over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Despite ample moisture, a thinning cirrus canopy, and ample solar insolation in place, shower and storm coverage has been relatively sparse. Convective-allowing models keep SHRA/TSRA coverage over the interior higher than coastal areas through sunset. Based off of recent radar and satellite trends, am hard pressed to go against this idea, so will maintain 60% across Lake and nearby western Orange county. Otherwise, PoPs taper to 40-50% over the Volusia/N. Brevard and 20-30% across the Treasure Coast. Along those same lines, guidance strongly favors a lull in activity overnight as winds veer to the south and most convection remains east and west of the peninsula. Still, with such a wet environment in place, along with stout (and veering) low to mid level winds, opted to keep low shower chances (20-30%) in place. A small window for rotating convection remains through the overnight as model soundings indicate some shear/helicity over the central peninsula; however, precip coverage looks to remain sparse. Wednesday-Thursday (Previous)...Stout southerly flow remains with Hurricane Michael continuing its trek northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will veer southwesterly on Thursday with Michael forecast to move northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina. Deep moisture will remain well established across east central Florida and again favor high coverage of showers and possibly a storm or two each day. Interestingly, MAV guidance has trended downward but not really buying this with such high moisture in place. Will stick with likely PoPs areawide during the daytime periods. Showers/squalls will again be fast moving with strong steering flow in place and will be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 40 mph along with brief but very heavy periods of rainfall. An isolated tornado is possible beginning Wednesday morning into the afternoon and evening mainly for areas north and west of I-4 as the NAM is showing 0-1 km SRH in excess of 200 m^2/s^. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a marginal risk of severe weather. A weak frontal boundary will then begin to move through the area and usher in some drier air Thursday night mainly across northern areas. High temps will be in the mid to upper 80 with some locations near 90. Overnight lows will be remain above normal with most locations seeing mid 70s along with upper 70s/near 80 close to the coast. Friday-Monday...Drier air will continue to infiltrate into east central Florida behind the weak frontal boundary. This will lead to overall lower rain chances for most of the area Friday into Saturday, but enough lingering moisture could lead to scattered showers and a few storms mainly south of I-4. Rain chances begin to increase by Sunday into early next week as winds turn back southerly and bring an increase in moisture to the area. High temperatures will not really change at all with mid to upper 80s/near 90 each day. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler on Friday night into Saturday morning where some mid-upper 60s are possible north and west of I-4. Low 70s elsewhere. Low temperatures will rebound after than and return to low 70s inland with mid 70s near the coast. && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR, though very moist environment on the far eastern periphery of Michael will remain conducive for SHRA over the next 24 to 36 hours, particularly during the daylight hours. For the rest of today, coverage will be highest across the interior through late afternoon (KISM/KMCO/KLEE) corridor. Otherwise, expect a resurgence of SHRA and isolated TSRA tomorrow beginning late in the morning. && .MARINE... Rest of Today-Tonight...Tightened pressure gradient will lead to 15 to 20 knots over the next 24 hours, highest across the Volusia waters. Seas 6-7 feet near shore and 7-8 feet well offshore overnight. Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to drop over the nearshore Treasure Coast waters as winds gradually subside there and allow seas to drop below 7 feet. Still, Small Craft should continue to exercise caution there through tomorrow. Wednesday-Thursday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue as we remain on the outer periphery of Michael. Expect the tightest pressure gradient to remain from about the Cape northward, where winds should remain 15-20 knots through early Thursday afternoon. In fact, as Matthew passes by the north over GA/SC, south to southwest winds will surge to about 20-25 knots in these same areas. Given the limited fetch, expect 7 foot seas to be confined mainly offshore, however, given the surge in winds, opted to carry the Small Craft Advisory through Thursday afternoon for Volusia waters and offshore Brevard County. Friday-Saturday...Better conditions expected on Friday and Saturday. Seas will continue to subside to 2-3 ft nearshore and 3-4 ft offshore. Winds are expected to be light between 5-10 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 78 88 78 90 / 20 60 30 40 MCO 76 89 77 90 / 20 60 30 50 MLB 80 88 78 90 / 20 50 20 50 VRB 78 88 78 89 / 30 50 20 60 LEE 77 89 77 89 / 20 60 40 50 SFB 77 90 77 90 / 20 60 30 50 ORL 77 89 77 89 / 20 60 30 50 FPR 78 88 78 89 / 30 50 20 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Volusia County-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard County- Southern Brevard County-St. Lucie. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm. && $$ Ulrich/Pendergrast