256 FXUS63 KMKX 111431 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 931 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .UPDATE...Did add some very light precip into the forecast for a few hours this morning. Received a social media report of a mix east of Dodgeville. Boundary layer by and large warm enough to support just rain. Model soundings not supportive of ice introduction. Chilly, blustery day in the works with widespread stratocu. PC && .MARINE...Marine headlines still look good with strong west winds supportive of the Gale Warning for nearshore and open waters. Will likely need a midday small craft advisory to followup the Gale Warning in the nearshore waters. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 600 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018) UPDATE... No change to the forecast. It will be a blustery, cool day across southern Wisconsin with temperatures fairly steady in the 40s. AVIATION(12Z TAFS)... Blustery westerly winds will persist through the afternoon and diminish quickly this evening. Ceilings are mainly MVFR with ceilings in the 1600-2900 ft range. Expect ceilings to rise to VFR this afternoon and gradually scatter out this evening. Mid level clouds will spread into southern Wisconsin Friday morning. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018) SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium to High. Blustery southwest to west winds in the wake of a cold front will persist through the day. Temperatures will be in the 40s today with mostly cloudy skies. We should be able to scatter out some of the clouds by this evening with the loss of diurnal heating, but cyclonic flow aloft and weakening cold air advection will keep at least a few clouds around. Despite the clouds, temperatures should be able to drop into the lower 30s across most of southern WI overnight. Winds SHOULD be light enough to allow for frost development, although there is still uncertainty. Either way, barely below-freezing temperatures can kill sensitive vegetation. We issued a Freeze Warning for most of the area. Near the lakeshore from Milwaukee south, temperatures may remain slightly warmer due to better mixing which would prevent a hard freeze. Therefore, went with a Frost Advisory in that area. LONG TERM... Friday and Saturday...Forecast Confidence High... High pressure will move east through the lower Missouri Valley on Friday, with west winds and cool temperatures across southern Wisconsin. Highs will only reach the low 40s, with continued widespread cloud cover across the region. Partial clearing is expected Friday night as a mid level trough moves east of the region, replaced by an area of mid level ridging. This will likely set the stage for a rather chilly night, with lows falling into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. Any areas that don't see a freeze or frost tonight will likely see the end of the growing season by Saturday morning. A brief return of southerly winds ahead of a clipper system will allow temperatures to warm into the low 50s Saturday. Expect to see cloud cover increase late in the day, with a frontal boundary moving through late Saturday night. A few light rain showers or sprinkles will be possible with this front. Sunday through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence Moderate to High... Highs will be back in the 40s Sunday and Monday, with overnight lows around freezing. Another system will move through mid week, bringing chances for light rain Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures may moderate by mid to late week, but still look to remain at or below average. AVIATION(09Z TAFS)... Look for MVFR conditions into this afternoon with CIGS ranging from 1500-2500ft. VFR conditions with clearing skies returns later this afternoon into the evening. Westerly winds will also remain quite gusty through this afternoon and diminish quickly this evening. MARINE... Open Lake... Extended the Gale Warning for the whole lake until 4 pm today due to a lingering tight pressure gradient and deep mixing with cold air advection. Winds will diminish quickly overnight as high pressure wedges into the Midwest by Friday morning. Nearshore... The Gale Warning remains in effect until noon today. Westerly wind gusts should diminish to 30 knots for this afternoon, so a Small Craft Advisory will be needed to replace the gale warning. Winds will diminish below advisory levels by Friday morning. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for WIZ046-047-051- 052-056>059-062>065-067>070. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for WIZ060-066-071- 072. LM...Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ669-671-673- 675. Gale Warning until noon CDT today for LMZ643>646. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Cronce Friday THROUGH Wednesday...Boxell