528 FXUS63 KMKX 110140 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 840 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... The front has pushed through. The westerly winds have kicked in and are a bit more robust than expected...at least in the immediate wake of the front. Look for gusty/blustery conditions to persist right through the day on Thursday. Colder air is flowing in...along with an associated large stratus deck of clouds. The forecast is in good shape, so no big adjustments needed. && .MARINE... Southwest to west winds are ramping up quickly across Lake Michigan. Gale force winds are expected over the next hour or two. Look for the winds to veer more westerly over the next few hours as well. Strong low pressure will track from the bay of Green Bay early this evening, to well northeast of the Great Lakes by this time Thursday. A gale warning is in effect for our nearshore waters and all of the open waters of Lake Michigan through the morning on Thursday. A small craft advisory for the nearshore waters will be needed when that expires. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 656 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018) UPDATE... The cold front will sweep out over Lake Michigan by 7 pm, taking any showers along with it. Look for drier, gusty west winds to overspread the area in its wake. AVIATION(00Z TAFS)... The cold front will sweep out over Lake Michigan by the start of the next TAF cycle...or 00z Thu. Look for westerly winds to increase and become rather gusty through the TAF period. The cold air advection behind the front will help keep CIGS at MVFR levels through Thursday afternoon. Expect clouds to hover around 1.5-2.5kft, lifting to 3kft Thursday afternoon. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR levels by Thursday evening. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 316 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018) DISCUSSION... Tonight and Thursday...Forecast Confidence is High. Light to moderate rain via the warm conveyor belt will come to an end over ern WI late this afternoon, but a broken line of showers and possibly isold tstorms along the cold front over sw WI will move ewd into early evening. No longer anticipating any short term flooding problems other than the rivers that are already in flood or are forecasted to rise to flood stage. The 999 mb Low over west central WI will deepen and occlude to the ern portion of Upper MI and Lake Superior tnt and reach near James Bay, Canada around 00Z Fri. Strong cold advection and gusty winds to 30 to 35 mph tnt-Thu. Temps will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by sunrise Thu and remain in the 40s through the day. Thursday night through Saturday - Confidence...Medium Center of surface high will shift to the south of WI this period with ridging becoming centered across WI Friday night. A couple of chilly and frosty nights are likely. A mid level trough axis swings through later Friday into Friday evening. Except for the 00z ECMWF, models keep qpf with this feature to our south. Clouds and winds may be a limiting factor in widespread frost formation Thursday night. By Friday night, clouds should be fewer and winds lighter, so this looks to be the better chance at a more widespread frost. On saturday we start to see some low/mid level waa in advance of the next trough. Saturday night and Sunday - Confidence...Medium A cold front swings through and will reinforce the chilly airmass. The 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF show some light precip potential with this Saturday night so will have some mention in the forecast of light rain. However, the 12z ECMWF has backed off and is showing a dry look. Cold advection prevails Sunday with the GFS showing a somewhat colder solution with some 925 temps getting below 0c. Sunday night and Monday - Confidence...Medium The 00z ECMWF is showing some precip across the area this period as a system passes south. The 12z run has pulled back a bit. Meanwhile the GFS and GEM continue with a dry look as the low riding along the front well south keeps the qpf well away from our area. Will go with this drier look for now. Tuesday - Confidence...Medium Another low pressure system will shift into WI or the Lake Superior region . A period of waa is expected ahead this system with a chance of showers in the afternoon and/or evening as the front and mid level energy move through. A gusty northwest wind kicks in behind this system setting up a dry but chilly Wednesday. AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Cigs of 1-3 kft this afternoon through Thu AM with Cigs locally below 1 kft within and near areas of rain. Vsbys of 1-5SM in and near areas of rain. Cigs then rising to 3.5-4.0 kft Thu afternoon and possibly becoming scattered. Winds becoming wly late this afternoon and evening and gusting to 30-35 kts through Thu. MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 02z Thu from Port Washington to Sheboygan and points north due to high waves from a persistent sly flow. Afterward, a Gale Warning is in effect from 02z Thu until 17Z Thu for the entire open lakes of Lake MI and the nearshore area from Sheboygan south to Winthrop Harbor, IL. A strong cold front will sweep across the lake this evening with west-southwest gale force wind gusts. The winds will gradually weaken Thu afternoon into the evening. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Gale Warning until noon CDT Thursday for LMZ643>646-669-671-673- 675. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643. && $$ Update...Davis Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Gehring Thursday Night through Wednesday...Collar