811 
FXUS63 KMKX 102016
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
316 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Thursday...Forecast Confidence is High. 

Light to moderate rain via the warm conveyor belt will come to an
end over ern WI late this afternoon, but a broken line of showers
and possibly isold tstorms along the cold front over sw WI will 
move ewd into early evening. No longer anticipating any short 
term flooding problems other than the rivers that are already in 
flood or are forecasted to rise to flood stage. 

The 999 mb Low over west central WI will deepen and occlude to the
ern portion of Upper MI and Lake Superior tnt and reach near James
Bay, Canada around 00Z Fri. Strong cold advection and gusty winds
to 30 to 35 mph tnt-Thu. Temps will fall into the upper 30s to
lower 40s by sunrise Thu and remain in the 40s through the day. 

Thursday night through Saturday - Confidence...Medium
Center of surface high will shift to the south of WI this period
with ridging becoming centered across WI Friday night. A couple of
chilly and frosty nights are likely. A mid level trough axis
swings through later Friday into Friday evening. Except for the
00z ECMWF, models keep qpf with this feature to our south. Clouds
and winds may be a limiting factor in widespread frost formation
Thursday night. By Friday night, clouds should be fewer and winds
lighter, so this looks to be the better chance at a more
widespread frost. On saturday we start to see some low/mid level
waa in advance of the next trough. 

Saturday night and Sunday - Confidence...Medium
A cold front swings through and will reinforce the chilly airmass.
The 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF show some light precip potential with 
this Saturday night so will have some mention in the forecast of 
light rain. However, the 12z ECMWF has backed off and is showing a
dry look. Cold advection prevails Sunday with the GFS showing a 
somewhat colder solution with some 925 temps getting below 0c.

Sunday night and Monday - Confidence...Medium
The 00z ECMWF is showing some precip across the area this period 
as a system passes south. The 12z run has pulled back a bit. 
Meanwhile the GFS and GEM continue with a dry look as the low 
riding along the front well south keeps the qpf well away from our
area. Will go with this drier look for now.

Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Another low pressure system will shift into WI or the Lake
Superior region . A period of waa is expected ahead this system
with a chance of showers in the afternoon and/or evening as the 
front and mid level energy move through. A gusty northwest wind 
kicks in behind this system setting up a dry but chilly Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...Cigs of 1-3 kft this afternoon through Thu
AM with Cigs locally below 1 kft within and near areas of rain.
Vsbys of 1-5SM in and near areas of rain. Cigs then rising to 
3.5-4.0 kft Thu afternoon and possibly becoming scattered. Winds 
becoming wly late this afternoon and evening and gusting to 30-35 
kts through Thu. 

&&

.MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 02z Thu 
from Port Washington to Sheboygan and points north due to high 
waves from a persistent sly flow. Afterward, a Gale Warning is in 
effect from 02z Thu until 17Z Thu for the entire open lakes of 
Lake MI and the nearshore area from Sheboygan south to Winthrop 
Harbor, IL. A strong cold front will sweep across the lake this 
evening with west-southwest gale force wind gusts. The winds will 
gradually weaken Thu afternoon into the evening.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CDT Thursday for 
     LMZ643>646-669-671-673-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643.

&&

$$
Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine...Gehring 
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Collar