622 FXUS63 KMKX 100842 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 342 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium to High. Low pressure will slide from northeast Iowa to northeast Wisconsin today. Within the "warm conveyor belt" and strong moisture transport, there is a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms that extends from southern Missouri through western Wisconsin and up through Eau Claire this morning. Heavy rain is possible as precipitable water values are up to 1.8 inches, well above normal for this time of year. The flood watch still looks valid, so no change to the headline. The line of showers and thunderstorms will gradually slide east through the afternoon as the cold front gives it a nudge. Given the strong shear along the front, there is a marginal risk for severe storms. Instability will be weak, but the shear could make up for it and give us the risk for damaging winds or a brief tornado this afternoon. Winds will increase out of the west-southwest late this evening in the wake of the cold front and persist through the night. Temperatures will go from the lower 70s late this afternoon to around 40 degrees by late tonight with this strong front. .LONG TERM... Thursday and Friday...Forecast Confidence High... By Thursday morning the surface front will be well east of the area, with temperatures starting the day in the upper 30s to around 40. Highs will only warm a few degrees into the mid 40s, given continued cold air advection from the northwest and a widespread stratocu deck. Those gusty northwest winds will keep wind chills in the mid 30s for much of the day. Temperatures Thursday night/early Friday morning are expected to fall to right around freezing. Winds may stay up just enough to limit frost formation in some areas, though any place that is sheltered from the wind will have good frost potential. On Friday, surface high pressure will be moving through the lower Missouri Valley, but aloft, another shortwave will be passing through the area. This will result in continued cloud cover, and a chance for a few sprinkles across far southeastern Wisconsin. Highs Friday will again be in the mid 40s. Saturday through Next Wednesday...Forecast Confidence Moderate... Forecast confidence has improved a bit going into the weekend, as it now looks fairly likely that we will see a parade of clipper systems move through the region on active northwest flow. Even then, exact timing, strength, and especially moisture availability/precip potential are still subject to change. For now, it looks like Saturday will be mostly dry, with temperatures recovering a bit into the low 50s as surface flow becomes southwesterly. Another front is then expected to move through late Saturday or early Sunday, and this will have at least some light rain with it. High temperatures will likely be knocked back into the 40s for Sunday and Monday, with lows in the low 30s. Frost will be a good bet both Sunday and Monday nights. Another clipper is progged to then move through in the Tuesday or Wednesday timeframe. This would bring yet another shot of light precip to the region. && .AVIATION(09Z TAFS)... A strong low level jet will bring low level wind shear to southern WI early this morning. Look for VFR conditions through about 12z. The steadier rain should remain just to the west of Madison through 09z. Then MVFR CIGS will begin to spread quickly west to east across the area through the mid to late morning as a strong trough of low pressure/cold front push in. We should see a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGS. These lower conditions will persist until the cold front pushes through, with improving CIGS by evening. The front will push through KMSN around 20z Wed and KMKE/KENW/KUES around 21-22z Wed. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from 12z this morning to 02z Thu from Port Washington to Sheboygan and points north due to high waves from a persistent sly flow. Afterward, a Gale Warning is in effect from 02z Thu until 17Z Thu for the entire open lakes of Lake MI and the nearshore area from Sheboygan south to Winthrop Harbor, IL. A strong cold front will sweep across the lake this evening with west-southwest gale force wind gusts. The winds will gradually weaken Thu afternoon into the evening. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ056-062-067. LM...Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CDT Thursday for LMZ643>646-669-671-673-675. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Cronce Thursday through Tuesday...Boxell