928 FXUS62 KMHX 111025 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 625 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Storm Michael will move northeast just to the west and northwest of the area today and tonight, then accelerate away from the area Friday pushing a cold front offshore. High pressure will build in from the north this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Tropical Storm Michael is currently centered across central GA and will lift northeast across the Carolinas today, then off the southeast VA coast tonight. The primary impacts associated with Michael remain three-fold over our CWA. The heaviest axis of rainfall continues to nudge west slightly as the track of the storm is refined and WPC has lowered amounts across the area with most of the area slightly. Latest guidance is showing 1-2" across western and northern sections and 0.5-1" across southern and central coastal sections. Locally higher amounts remains possible and with heavy rainfall rates possible, the flash flood threat has changed little, especially given the continued cleanup from Hurricane Florence last month and possible storm debris clogging storm drains, etc. so will continue the Flash Flood Watch through tonight. The threat for Tropical Storm Force winds, especially in gusts, will begin around mid-day across southern sections and spread northeast across the area through the afternoon. The highest gusts are expected near the coast, but with weakened trees from Florence, there will be the threat of falling trees, limbs, etc. across much of the region. Finally, a threat of isolated tornadoes will exist along and right of the storm track, which will cover all of MHX CWA. The significant tornado parameter values from the NAM/WRF model exceed 4 during the afternoon and early evening hours. The highest values move into western sections around mid-day and then move into eastern sections late afternoon and early evening hours. Storm surge is a much lesser threat across the area but with increasing south to southwest winds, could see 1-3 ft above ground across southern coastal sections and counties along the northern Pamlico Sound and will issue a coastal flood advisory for Carteret, Onslow, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde and Beaufort Counties. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Michael is progged to be just northwest of the are early this evening, then move off the southeast VA coast after midnight. Impacts will continue through the evening as mentioned in the near term discussion, but will improve quickly after midnight as a cold front sweeps across the area bringing a cooler/drier airmass. The one exception will be for gusty winds continuing on the backside of Michael as it moves off the coast and strengthens a bit as it interact with a mid- level system and becomes extra- tropical. The strong west to northwest winds may bring a brief window of minor coastal flooding along sound side OBX where 2-4 ft surge above ground may be possible and will continue the Storm Surge Watch for OBX Dare and Hyde. Conditions should improve quickly Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM Thursday...The remnants of Tropical Storm Michael will quickly exit the northern coast zones early Friday morning with much cooler and drier air filtering into the region. After a cool fall-like weekend, a chance of showers will return by midweek in advance of another cold front and mid-level trough. Even cooler air is likely by the end of next week. Friday through Sunday...Fall-like weather finally arrives in eastern North Carolina as Michael exits as the axis of a strong mid-level trough moves offshore. Precipitable water values drop quickly to around 0.50 inch by Friday afternoon with dewpoints dropping into the 50s. Coupled with NW breezes and high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, very comfortable conditions can be expected. Guidance drops most of the region into the mid to upper 50s at night with low/mid 60s Outer Banks. Highs for both Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s for most areas with no precipitation expected. Monday through Wednesday...Upper level heights again build across the region early next week with some modification of the airmass as high temperatures once again approach 80 degrees by Monday. Deeper moisture also returns to the area ahead of a cold front and strong mid-level shortwave, leading to a return of showers later Tuesday through Wednesday as precipitable water values again surge toward 2 inches. Adjusted PoPs slightly, with lower values Tuesday and high values for Wednesday, but still in the chance category given the time frame. Behind the front/mid- level trough, the coolest temperatures of this early fall season are expected by late next week with many areas potentially seeing lows in the 40s for the first time since last spring. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 625 AM Thu...Latest obs show a mixed bag of IFR to VFR across the terminals early this morning. Conditions expected to gradually deteriorate today as TS Michael passes just to the NW. Expect showers to become numerous and likely heavy at times with widespread MVFR conditions and periods of IFR. S/SW winds will become quite gusty in the aftn with threat of LLWS. Conditions rapidly improving late tonight and early Friday morning with VFR returning and wind gusts diminishing. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 140 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period as a much drier airmass moves into the area. Scattered showers possible Monday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 330 AM Thursday...Tropical Storm Michael will lift across central NC today and then off of the southeast VA coast tonight. Tropical Storm conditions will develop across the waters this afternoon through tonight with some strengthening of winds late tonight across the northern waters as Michael pushes offshore and strengthens a bit as it becomes extra-tropical. Seas along the coastal waters currently 4-7 ft but are expected to build to 10-15 ft through the day, then begin to gradually subside late tonight. All small craft should remain in port during this time. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 345 AM Friday...Strong gusty NW winds on the backside of the exiting remnants of Michael are expected for Friday morning, with some Tropical Storm Force conditions likely. Winds drop quickly Friday afternoon, but seas will remain elevated through Friday night per latest local SWAN/NWPS model. N/NE winds should remain at or below 15 knots from Saturday into Sunday, before veering to more SE/S ahead of the next system beginning Monday. Seas through the weekend should be in the 2-4 foot range. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098- 103-104. Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>095-098-103-104. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098- 103-104. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 098. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EDT Friday for NCZ047-080-081. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CQD MARINE...CTC/SK