647 FXUS62 KMHX 110541 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 141 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Michael over Georgia this evening will weaken to a Tropical Storm tonight then move northeast just to the west and northwest of the area later Thursday and Thursday night. Michael will accelerate away from the area Friday pushing a cold front offshore. High pressure will build in from the north this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 930 PM Wed...Sct shra cont to lift NNW and onshore well ahead of Michael. Best cvrg central and S init with 50 to 60 pops then have mainly 50 pops later tonight with cont sct activity crossing the region. Better shear will begin to reach the srn tier twrd daybreak and will see an increasing threat of rotating cells from then thru Thu/Thu evening. Moist SE to S flow tonight will make it feel like mid summer with muggy lows in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... As of 315 pm Wed...The impacts associated with Michael remain three-fold over our CWA. The heaviest axis of rainfall will set up just west of our CWA, but 2-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are likely across our region. Given the continued cleanup from Hurricane Florence last month, this amount of rain will cause issues with possible storm debris clogging storm drains, etc. so the Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA from Thursday through early Friday morning still looks good. Tropical Storm Force winds will be likely starting Thursday morning and running through Thursday night. The higher gusts will be near the coast, but with weakened trees from Florence, there will be the threat of falling trees, limbs, etc. Finally, a threat of isolated tornadoes will exist along and right of the storm track Thursday afternoon and evening. The significant tornado parameter values from the NAM/WRF model exceed 4 during the early to mid afternoon tomorrow. The main impacts of the storm will gradually move offshore late Thursday night and early Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 am Wed... Thu night through Fri night...Michael will race off to the northeast Thursday night with a cold front very close behind it passing through from the west. Likely to categorical PoPs Thursday night will quickly taper off to chance Friday morning, with dry weather beginning Friday afternoon as high pressure and a much drier airmass builds into the region. Saturday and Sunday...As Michael exits the coast, a broad mid- level trough pushes offshore finally ushering in some cooler and drier fall-like air, more normal for October. Highs for both Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 70s, with much of the area falling into the 50s for lows both mornings, with low/mid 60s Outer Banks. Monday through Tuesday...A few showers return to the area for early next week as another mid-level trough crosses the region with an associated surface cold front. Have increasing chance PoPs Monday into Tuesday. Longer range guidance indicate much cooler air to filter in behind this front for the mid to late part of next week, with many inland areas having lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 140 AM Thu...Latest obs show widespread MVFR conditions across the terminals early this morning, but could bounce between VFR and IFR with periods of showers. Conditions grad deteriorate today as TS Michael passes just to the NW. Expect showers to become numerous and likely heavy at times with widespread MVFR conditions and periods of IFR. S/SW winds will become quite gusty in the aftn with threat of LLWS. Conditions rapidly improving late tonight and early Friday morning with VFR returning and wind gusts diminishing. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 140 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period as a much drier airmass moves into the area. Scattered showers possible Monday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Thu/... As of 930 PM Wed...No changes to winds/seas with dangerous boating conditions developing. Prev disc...Boating conditions will worsen as Michael moves toward the area. Winds tonight will be 15-20 knots all waters, except for 10-15 knots on the Albemarle Sound and Alligator River. Winds will increase through the day Thursday from south to north as Michael approaches with tropical storm conditions developing across all marine zones. All small craft should remain in port during this time. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 335 AM Wednesday...Tropical Storm Conditions will continue impacting the coastal waters and sounds Thursday night before ending Friday morning. All small craft should remain in port during this time. The fast-moving tropical system will exit by Friday evening, with N/NE winds developing and quickly diminishing by Saturday with seas finally dropping below 6 feet. Winds Saturday and Saturday night will be N/NE 10-15 knots with seas generally at 3-5 feet, before winds veer to a more southerly component ahead of the next front later Sunday into early next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098- 103-104. Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>095-098-103-104. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098- 103-104. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CQD MARINE...RF/CTC/HSA