109 FXUS62 KMHX 101918 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 318 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Michael will move northward from the Gulf of Mexico and impact the area as a tropical storm Thursday into early Friday. A cold front will shift off the coast on Friday with high pressure building in from the north this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 315 pm...Moisture will continue to deepen and spread north through the forecast area tonight ahead of Michael. Kept likely PoPs along the coast with chance inland this evening, then likely all areas, except chance along the coastal plain. Lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 315 pm...The impacts associated with Michael remain three-fold over our CWA. The heaviest axis of rainfall will set up just west of our CWA, but 2-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are likely across our region. Given the continued cleanup from Hurricane Florence last month, this amount of rain will cause issues with possible storm debris clogging storm drains, etc. so the Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA from Thursday through early Friday morning still looks good. Tropical Storm Force winds will be likely starting Thursday morning and running through Thursday night. The higher gusts will be near the coast, but with weakened trees from Florence, there will be the threat of falling trees, limbs, etc. Finally, a threat of isolated tornadoes will exist along and right of the storm track Thursday afternoon and evening. The significant tornado parameter values from the NAM/WRF model exceed 4 during the early to mid afternoon tomorrow. The main impacts of the storm will gradually move offshore late Thursday night and early Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 am Wed... Thu night through Fri night...Michael will race off to the northeast Thursday night with a cold front very close behind it passing through from the west. Likely to categorical PoPs Thursday night will quickly taper off to chance Friday morning, with dry weather beginning Friday afternoon as high pressure and a much drier airmass builds into the region. Saturday and Sunday...As Michael exits the coast, a broad mid- level trough pushes offshore finally ushering in some cooler and drier fall-like air, more normal for October. Highs for both Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 70s, with much of the area falling into the 50s for lows both mornings, with low/mid 60s Outer Banks. Monday through Tuesday...A few showers return to the area for early next week as another mid-level trough crosses the region with an associated surface cold front. Have increasing chance PoPs Monday into Tuesday. Longer range guidance indicate much cooler air to filter in behind this front for the mid to late part of next week, with many inland areas having lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through Thu/... As of 1 pm Wed...VFR conditions through late evening, then deteriorating to MVFR after 06Z as numerous showers spread in from the south ahead of Michael. Widespread MVFR/IFR forecast during the day Thursday in numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Surface winds will be generally 10-15 knots through tonight, and 15-25 knots Thursday. Included a forecast of low level wind shear in EWN, OAJ and ISO for Thursday afternoon. Long Term /Thu night through Sun/... As of 2 AM Wed...Tropical Storm Force wind gusts possible, best chances for stronger gusts will be at EWN and OAJ. Widespread showers forecast with frequent periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsbys expected Thursday night into early Friday. Conditions will be gradually improving through the day Friday. Drier and cooler air will arrive in the wake of the departing storm later Friday night through Sunday with VFR conditions returning. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Thu/ As of 315 pm Wed...Boating conditions will worsen as Michael moves toward the area. Winds tonight will be 15-20 knots all waters, except for 10-15 knots on the Albemarle Sound and Alligator River. Winds will increase through the day Thursday from south to north as Michael approaches with tropical storm conditions developing across all marine zones. All small craft should remain in port during this time. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 335 AM Wednesday...Tropical Storm Conditions will continue impacting the coastal waters and sounds Thursday night before ending Friday morning. All small craft should remain in port during this time. The fast-moving tropical system will exit by Friday evening, with N/NE winds developing and quickly diminishing by Saturday with seas finally dropping below 6 feet. Winds Saturday and Saturday night will be N/NE 10-15 knots with seas generally at 3-5 feet, before winds veer to a more southerly component ahead of the next front later Sunday into early next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098- 103-104. Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Friday morning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095- 098-103-104. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...HSA/CTC MARINE...HSA/CTC