864 FXUS62 KMHX 100836 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 436 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Michael will move northward from the Gulf of Mexico and impact the area as a tropical storm Thursday and Thursday night. A cold front will shift off the coast on Friday with high pressure building in from the north this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...High pressure offshore gradually weakens today as Hurricane Michael makes landfall on the Gulf Coast. Southeast flow off the Atlantic will continue to bring isolated showers across the region early this morning but a deeper moisture feed, currently moving into SC, will gradually lift into the region today bringing numerous to widespread showers across SW and W portions of the CWA. Highest PoPs are along the Crystal Coast and locations along and west of Highway 17. NE sections and the OBX are expected to see mainly isolated to scattered showers though the day. Isolated thunderstorms possible as well with MUCAPE values expected to peak around 1500 J/kg this afternoon. Highs today generally in the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms continue across the region as Michael pushes across GA into SC tonight. Greatest impacts from Michael will likely hold off until Thursday but heavier showers could bring localized flooding concerns, especially in areas still recovering from Florence where debris may clog drainages, therefore have issued a flash flood watch beginning this evening. Lows will generally be in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM Wednesday...Hurricane Michael will make landfall along the Florida Panhandle coast as a strong Category 4 hurricane today and will quickly weaken to a tropical storm as it moves northeast through Georgia and into the Carolinas on Thursday. Significant impacts from this storm are likely over our area Thursday into early Friday, before a cooler drier airmass takes hold over the region for the weekend. Thursday through Friday...The impacts associated with Michael remain three-fold over our CWA. The heaviest axis of rainfall will set up just west of our CWA, but 2-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are likely across our region. Given the continued cleanup from Hurricane Florence last month, this amount of rain will cause issues with possible storm debris clogging storm drains, etc. will issue a Flash Flood Watch for the entire CWA from Thursday through early Friday morning. Tropical Storm Force winds will be likely starting Thursday morning and running through Thursday night. The higher gusts will be near the coast, but with weakened trees from Florence, there will be the threat of falling trees, limbs, etc. Finally, a threat of isolated tornadoes will exist along and right of the storm track Thursday afternoon and evening. The significant tornado parameter values from the NAM/WRF model exceed 4 during the early to mid afternoon tomorrow. The main impacts of the storm will gradually move offshore late Thursday night and early Friday morning. Saturday and Sunday...As Michael exits the coast, a broad mid- level trough pushes offshore finally ushering in some cooler and drier fall-like air, more normal for October. Highs for both Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 70s, with much of the area falling into the 50s for lows both mornings, with low/mid 60s Outer Banks. Monday through Tuesday...A few showers return to the area for early next week as another mid-level trough crosses the region with an associated surface cold front. Have increasing chance PoPs Monday into Tuesday. Longer range guidance indicate much cooler air to filter in behind this front for the mid to late part of next week, with many inland areas having lows in the 40s. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 2 AM Wed...VFR conditions currently across the terminals early this morning. Think increasing clouds and light easterly flow should limit any fog development, but can't rule out some patchy fog developing inland early this morning. Expect conditions to deteriorate through the day however as lower cigs/vsbys in numerous showers ahead of approaching tropical system Michael. Widespread MVFR conditions likely to develop this afternoon, possibly lowering to IFR tonight. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 2 AM Wed...Tropical Storm Force wind gusts possible Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, best chances for stronger gusts will be at EWN and OAJ. Widespread showers forecast with frequent periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsbys expected Thursday into early Friday. Conditions will be gradually improving through the day Friday. Drier and cooler air will arrive in the wake of the departing storm later Friday night through Sunday with VFR conditions returning. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/ As of 430 AM Wednesday...High pressure weakens off the coast as Hurricane Michael makes landfall on the Gulf Coast and lifts into GA/SC tonight. SSE winds around 10-20 kt today will increase to 15-25 kt tonight as Michael moves closer to the area. Seas around 5 ft northern waters and 5-7 ft south/central waters today build to around 6 ft north and 6-8 ft south/central waters tonight. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 335 AM Wednesday...Tropical Storm Conditions will impact the coastal waters and sounds Thursday and Thursday night before ending Friday morning. All small craft should remain in port during this time. The fast-moving tropical system will exit by Friday evening, with N/NE winds developing and quickly diminishing by Saturday with seas finally dropping below 6 feet. Winds Saturday and Saturday night will be N/NE 10-15 knots with seas generally at 3-5 feet, before winds veer to a more southerly component ahead of the next front later Sunday into early next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098- 103-104. Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Friday morning for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098- 103-104. MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...CTC/SK