081 FXUS62 KMHX 100235 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1035 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to be centered off the mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday. Hurricane Michael will move northward from the Gulf of Mexico and impact the area as a tropical storm Thursday and Thursday night. A cold front will shift off the coast on Friday with high pressure building in from the north this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Overnight/... As of 1035 PM Tue...Ocnl iso/sct showers will continue to advect ENE off the Atlantic waters through the night, esp near the coast where deepest moisture resides. Several hundredths of an inch on avg is possible with these showers. Inc temps a degree or two, as very high TD's and light SE winds prevent much cooling. Previous discussion... As of 315 pm Tue...The overall pattern remains unchanged tonight with high pressure offshore continuing to bring east- southeast flow. Shower coverage expected to diminish quickly early this evening with loss of surface heating. Will keep slight chance along the coast overnight. Temps will be mild with lows in the mid to upper 60s inland to low to mid 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 pm Tue...Rain chances will increase during the day, mainly over the western half of the forecast area as moisture continues to stream in ahead of Michael. Potential exists for locally heavy rain beginning in the afternoon. Will hold off on any watches at this point and continue to examine trends. Highs will be in the mid 80s with lower 80s Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM Tuesday...The remnants of Hurricane Michael will impact the region with enhanced rainfall, potential gusty winds and a small threat of tornadoes Wednesday night into Friday before a transition to a cooler, drier more fall-like airmass for the weekend. An approaching mid-level trough will lead to another chance of showers early next week. Wednesday night through Friday night...The remnants of Hurricane Michael, which will make landfall over the western Florida Panhandle as a major hurricane Wednesday, will impact eastern NC Wednesday night into Friday. With a plume of high precipitable water values arriving Wednesday afternoon, a heavy rain threat is expected from Wednesday night into Friday afternoon. Global models are in better agreement with the timing of the system with the European still being the slowest, delaying much of the rainfall until early Friday, and the European continues to be further east than many of the other models. Regardless of the exact track, good consensus amongst the models and WPC guidance showing 2-4 inches of rain across most of the CWA with locally higher amounts possible. The weakening storm still has the potential to produce tropical storm force winds as it crosses the area late Thursday into Thursday night, and most of eastern NC will be in the favored right quadrant for the development of tornadoes and the low- level flow will be backed to the SE with surface-based CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg late Thursday into Thursday night. Have increased PoPs even further from previous forecasts increasing from likely over western sections Wednesday to categorical for Thursday. Highs will continue to be above normal in the tropical environment with highs in the mid 80s and lows mainly in the 70s. Saturday through Sunday...At long last, some cooler and drier fall-like air will arrive in eastern NC behind the department tropical low. As a strong mid-level trough sweeps offshore behind the remnants of Michael, pleasant air will be ushered in with highs Saturday and Sunday generally in the 70s and lows in the low/mid 50s inland and low/mid 60s Outer Banks. Monday...An approaching upper-level trough will lead to a increase in scattered showers Monday as temperatures moderate slightly from the cooler weekend readings, but will still be closer to normal than the past couple of weeks. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through Wed/ As of 7 pm Tue...Shower coverage will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Isolated showers forecast near the coast, but generally dry/VFR at the 4 terminals. Conditions deteriorate during the day Wednesday however, as lower cigs/vsbys in numerous showers ahead of approaching tropical system Michael. Surface winds will be east 5-10 knots overnight, and southeast 10-15 knots Wednesday. Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 350 AM Tuesday...Widespread showers forecast with frequent period of MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsbys expected Wednesday night into Friday afternoon. Strong gusty SE winds are likely Thursday and Thursday night. Drier and cooler air will arrive in the wake of the departing storm later Friday night and Saturday with VFR conditions returning. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Wed/ As of 315 pm Tue...High pressure will remain centered off the mid-Atlantic coast through the short term bringing southeast winds 10-20 kt. Seas will be 3-5 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 4-6 ft to the south tonight with long period swell from TC Leslie continuing to impact the waters. Seas Wednesday will be 4-6 feet north of Ocracoke and 5-7 feet south. Long Term /Wednesday night through Saturday/... As of 350 AM Tuesday...Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate Wednesday night into Thursday as Tropical Cyclone Michael approaches from the SW. Winds will be SE/S 15 to 20 knots Wednesday night, but swell energy from both distant Tropical Storm Leslie and wind energy from the approaching storm, will lead to seas of 5-7 feet. Tropical Storm Conditions with possible hurricane force gusts are expected Thursday into early Friday. The fast-moving tropical system will exit by Friday evening, with N/NE winds developing and quickly diminishing by Saturday with seas finally dropping below 6 feet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098- 103-104. Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for NCZ095- 098-103-104. MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA NEAR TERM...HSA/TL SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/TL MARINE...CTC/HSA