085 
FXUS66 KMFR 111059
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
359 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.DISCUSSION...An upper level ridge is nosing into the Pacific
Northwest today with a trough axis shifting south and east of the
area. A piece of the trough will break off and meander to a
position just off the Southern California coast by Friday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific
with an upstream trough extending from just north of Hawaii to the
Aleutians. This is resulting in a pretty classic omega blocking
pattern, which will ultimately prevent any significant weather
systems from impacting the West Coast through much of next week. 

What this means for us is a long stretch of dry mid-October 
weather with temperatures that will average a few to several 
degrees above normal. Much of that time will be characterized by 
chilly nights (cold east side) and seasonably mild to warm 
afternoons. Strong late-night and early morning inversions will 
result in areas of frost in sheltered west side valleys, 
especially portions of the Rogue, Illinois and Applegate Valleys, 
while surrounding mid slopes ridges will be comparatively warmer. 
Frost/freeze headlines are in effect for this morning and again 
late tonight into Friday morning. Details of these can be viewed 
at NPWMFR. Additional headlines for valley frost/freezing 
conditions may be necessary this weekend. Periods of breezy east 
to northeast winds will bring warmth to coastal areas near 
Brookings for the next several days with highs in the 70s and even
the low 80s. One disturbance will come over top of the ridge and 
down the east side Saturday into Sunday. While this system is 
likely to bring some gusty north to northeast winds Saturday 
afternoon/evening and also briefly halt the warm-up east of the 
Cascades, it could go largely unnoticed west of the Cascades. In 
fact, the flow may turn offshore enough by Sunday to bring warmth 
to coastal areas north of Cape Blanco, including Bandon/Coos 
Bay/North Bend with highs in the mid to upper 70s. -Spilde

&&

.AVIATION...For the 11/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions are being observed 
in most places now. Fog is hugging the coast near Cape Blanco and 
could impact KOTH briefly tonight before drier air moves in and VFR 
conditions become predominant. Drier conditions compared to last 
night should keep KRBG and other West Side valleys VFR tonight. East 
of the Cascades, MVFR ceilings are expected in Lake County with 
clearing in the late morning. -Schaaf/Keene

&&

.MARINE...Updated 3 AM PDT Thursday 11 October 2018...A thermal
trough near the coast will maintain gusty north winds and steep seas 
from Cape Blanco southward through Friday. This area of Small Craft 
Advisory conditions will expand northward Friday afternoon into 
Saturday. Additionally, long period southerly swell will build 
tonight, then persist at a peak Thursday into Friday. This may bring 
rough bar conditions at Brookings and elevated surf at Port Orford. 
On Sunday, expect the region of strongest northerly winds to shift 
to the outer waters north of Cape Blanco with seas gradually 
lowering into Tuesday.

Towards next week Thursday, we'll see a long period westerly swell 
move into the outer waters.  We're not expecting any issues with 
this new swell group as wave heights will probably stay below 10 
feet.
 
-Keene/Smith


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ024-026. 
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Friday for ORZ024-026. 
     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Friday for ORZ024-026. 

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT 
     Saturday for PZZ356-376. 
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for 
     PZZ350. 
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT 
     Saturday for PZZ370. 

$$

MAS/CZS