395 FXUS62 KMFL 110528 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 128 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .AVIATION... Mostly quiet weather through the overnight hours, as Michael has pulled far enough away to have only a minor influence in the weather for South Florida. There is on weak feeder band left dragging across the western portion of the area, keeping some SHRA and isolated TSRA near the Gulf. Tomorrow may see SHRA and TSRA in the eastern interior, which may be able to affect some of the TAF sites. However, there is too much uncertainty to include with this issuance, other than a VCSH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 754 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ UPDATE... Hurricane Michael is forecast by NHC to continue to weaken while moving northeast across the Southeastern United States tonight. This will keep a south to southwest steering flow over South Florida tonight, and allow for current line of showers over the southeast Gulf waters to move east northeast towards the west coast metro areas of South Florida. The latest short range models shows this line of showers to dissipate over the western areas tonight, as another line of showers develops over the Atlantic waters. Therefore, a slight chance of showers have been added for the mainland areas of South Florida tonight with the atlantic waters see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms after midnight. The latest short range models are also showing patchy fog over the northern interior areas late tonight. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned. UPDATE...54/BNB PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEST COAST BEACHES ALONG WITH A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT... NEAR RECORD HIGHS EAST COAST AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... Major Hurricane Michael is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move northeast across the Southeastern United States tonight into Thursday before moving into the northern Atlantic waters on Friday. A trough of low pressure will also develop from Michael southwest into Central Florida Thursday before moving southward into the Lake Okeechobee region on Friday. This weather pattern will allow for a south to southwest steering flow over South Florida late this week bringing in some tropical moisture to the area from the South. Therefore, isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible over South Florida each afternoon with the highest coverage over the Lake Okeechobee and northeastern areas. There could also be some patchy late night fog over the interior areas tonight. Fog will once again be possible over the interior areas late Thursday night and could work into the east coast metro areas early Friday morning due to the southwest wind flow. Therefore, fog wording has been added to the interior areas for late tonight, and for the interior and east coast metro areas late Thursday night into early Friday morning. The southwest wind flow will also allow for temperatures to warm up into the lower 90s Thursday afternoon and again Friday afternoon over the eastern areas of South Florida. These highs will be close to the record highs for this time of year. More on this in the climate section below. THIS WEEKEND... High pressure will build into the Southeastern United States this weekend. This will allow for the wind flow to back slowly to the east late this weekend, and allow the area to get back to more of a late summer weather pattern. Therefore, pops will be more in the isolated to scattered range with the best coverage over the interior and west coast metro areas this weekend. EXTENDED FORECAST... The high will strengthen and remain over the Southeastern United States early next week. This will allow for the easterly wind flow to become more breezy over South Florida early next week with isolated to scattered pops each afternoon. The best coverage will again be over the interior and west coast metro areas. MARINE... The winds will be south to southwest over the local waters tonight through Friday. The Atlantic wind speeds will be 10 to 15 knots tonight slowly decreasing to 10 knots or less by Friday. The Gulf winds will be 15 to 20 knots tonight before decreasing to less than 10 knots by Friday. This will keep the Atlantic seas at 4 feet or less through Friday. The Gulf seas will slowly decrease from 4 to 6 feet near-shore up to 7 feet offshore tonight to less than 3 feet by Friday. Therefore, the SCA will continue for the offshore Gulf waters tonight with an SCEC for the near-shore waters. BEACH FORECAST... The threat of rip currents will also continue for the west coast beaches through at least Thursday, due to the southwest wind flow. Therefore, the High Risk of Rip Currents will continue through at least Thursday evening. There is also a moderate risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida, due to the resistant southeast flow from the last couple of days. The Gulf Coast beaches of South Florida will also see a resistant of some minor coastal flooding from Michael and the King tides. At this time it looks like the surge could be up to 1 foot during the high tides tonight and again on Thursday. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory has been replaced with ah Coastal Flood Statement for the west coast beaches of South Florida. CLIMATE... Here are the forecast highs and the record highs for Thursday and Friday over the eastern areas of South Florida. 10/11/2018 10/11/2018 10/12/2018 10/12/2018 Cities Forecast Highs Record highs Forecast Highs Record Highs MIA 91 92 - 2009 90 91 - 2016 FLL 91 93 - 2008 90 91 - 2011 PBI 92 91 - 2011 91 93 - 1946 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 92 75 91 73 / 50 40 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 91 76 90 74 / 50 30 40 20 Miami 91 77 90 75 / 40 20 30 20 Naples 88 77 87 74 / 20 20 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ069-075. AM...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for GMZ676. && UPDATE...54/BNB DISCUSSION...54/BNB MARINE...54/BNB AVIATION...13 BEACH FORECAST...54/BNB