883 FXUS62 KMFL 101540 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1140 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Latest water vapor imagery shows Major Hurricane Michael churning over the northeastern Gulf, edging slowly north northeast, with a expected landfall near Panama City. Further south, over southern Florida, IR satellite loop depicts a scattered cloud deck in the low, mid, and upper levels showing little sign of significant convection. On this mornings 12Z MFL sounding, CAPE measured an impressive 3200 J/KG. However, without any vort maxes moving through or sea breeze convergence boundaries, there is not much a trigger for storms to form off of. PWAT values are currently well over 2.0", which indicates a very moist and tropical atmosphere. If storms do form, the south to north training motion may lead to areas of intense, but brief heavy rainfall. Expect ponding of water on the roadways and minor street flooding where this occurs. The main threat threat with the storms though will be cloud to ground lightning. Tonight, models wane activity over the interior, but continue the scattered showers/storm along the coastal zones. Have modified PoPs to reflect this in the latest package. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 811 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ AVIATION... South southeast winds this morning will persist around 10 KT, veering gradually to southerly 10 to 15 KT by this afternoon with occasional higher gusts. Scattered showers will occur throughout the day, especially during the afternoon. Although a few thunderstorms are possible, coverage will be too low to include mention in the latest TAF package. Winds and shower activity will dwindle aft 11/0100Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION... Hurricane Michael is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to continue to move northward through the Eastern Gulf of Mexico today towards the Florida Panhandle. This will allow for the wind to remain southerly through today as well. There will still be enough low level moisture in place to support a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will focus across northern areas as well as the Lake Okeechobee region. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 80s across the east coast metro areas to the lower 90s across the interior sections. As the end of the week approaches, Michael is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move through the southeastern portion of the country and then into the Mid Atlantic states. At the same time, a weak boundary trailing from Michael will push southward towards the Lake Okeechobee region and then stall out. This will allow for a south to southwesterly wind flow across South Florida during this time frame. Tropical moisture will also be increasing a little bit over South Florida late this week leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon with the highest pops over the Lake Okeechobee and northeastern areas of the region. The south southwest steering flow will also lead to above normal high temperatures for the east coast metro areas each day which could be near record highs for this time of year. More on the record highs in the climate section below. Michael is forecast to continue to move quickly to the northeast into the northern Atlantic waters this weekend allowing for high pressure to build into the Southeastern United States this weekend into early next week. This is will allow for the wind flow to swing back to an easterly direction late this weekend into early next week along with breezy conditions by early next week. Therefore, the weather will become more of a typical late time summer pattern over South Florida with the typical night time and morning activity across the east coast areas shifting to the interior and west coast areas in the afternoon and evening hours. MARINE... A southerly wind flow will occur across the Atlantic and Gulf waters throughout today. Hurricane Michael will continue through the northeastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico towards the Florida panhandle today. Seas in the Gulf will be slow to subside and remain at 7 to 9 feet in offshore waters today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through midweek, with a risk of waterspouts and gusty winds over Gulf waters. BEACH FORECAST... The Gulf Coast beaches of South Florida will also see a threat of rip currents today due to the south southwest winds from the influence of Hurricane Michael. Coastal flooding is possible on the Gulf coast today as surge from Michael of 1 to 3 feet will be combined with astronomically high King tides. More minor inundation will continue along the Atlantic coast over the next few days during high tide periods as well due to the high King tides. CLIMATE... Here are the forecast highs and the record highs for late this week over the eastern areas of South Florida. 10/11/2018 10/11/2018 10/12/2018 10/12/2018 Cities Forecast Highs Record highs Forecast Highs Record Highs MIA 89 92 - 2009 89 91 - 2016 FLL 89 93 - 2008 88 91 - 2011 PBI 90 91 - 2011 89 93 - 1946 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 90 77 90 76 / 50 30 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 88 80 89 78 / 40 40 40 20 Miami 88 77 89 76 / 40 30 50 20 Naples 88 77 87 76 / 50 40 50 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069- 075. AM...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ676. && UPDATE...27/JT DISCUSSION...55/CWC MARINE...55/CWC AVIATION...27/JT BEACH FORECAST...55/CWC