386 FXUS62 KMFL 100531 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 131 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .AVIATION... Hurricane Michael has all but passed to the west and northwest of the area. In its wake, the wind could still be breezy today, but with a more southerly flow. SHRA and maybe a few TSRA are possible, with TSRA most likely in the interior. Have only mentions at KPBI and KAPF for now, as those look to be the most likely sites to be affected. Elsewhere, uncertainty is too high too mention at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 822 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ UPDATE... Major Hurricane Michael will continue to move northward through the Eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. This will keep an southerly wind flow over South Florida tonight allowing for a few showers to work northward from the Florida Keys into the west coast metro areas and the east coast metro areas of South Florida. The interior areas should remain dry tonight, due to the low level inversion setting up over this area. The winds will also continue to be breezy to windy over the gulf waters of South Florida tonight along with seas of 3 to 6 feet near-shore up to 10 feet offshore. Coastal flooding is possible on the Gulf coast tonight into Thursday as surge from Michael of 1 to 3 feet will combined with astronomically high King tides. More minor inundation will continue along the Atlantic coast over the next few days during high tide periods. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Advisory for the west coastal areas has been extended until Wednesday evening. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned. UPDATE...54/BNB PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GULF COAST BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST AND WEST COAST BEACHES... NEAR RECORD HIGHS EAST COAST AREAS LATE THIS WEEK... DISCUSSION... TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... Hurricane Michael is forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to continue to move northward through the Eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight into Wednesday towards the Florida Panhandle. This will allow for the wind flow over South Florida to be southerly tonight into Wednesday. The weather should remain dry rest of this afternoon into early this evening. However, the latest short range models are showing that the showers south of the Florida Keys should work into South Florida late this evening into the overnight hours tonight. Therefore, pops tonight will remain in the slight chance over most of the area, except low end chance over the metro areas. There could also be a few thunderstorms during the overnight hours over the metro areas. The pops on Wednesday will be in the scattered range with the best coverage over the northern interior areas of South Florida. There will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon hours over south Florida on Wednesday. LATE THIS WEEK... Michael is forecast by NHC to move northeast across the Southeastern United states and into the Mid Atlantic States. This will allow for a trough of low pressure extending from Michael to set up over the Lake Okeechobee region leading to a south southwest steering flow over the region. Tropical moisture will also be increasing a little bit over South Florida late this week leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon with the highest pops over the Lake Okeechobee and northeastern areas of the region. The south southwest steering flow will also lead to above normal high temperatures for the east coast metro areas each day which could be near record highs for this time of year. More on the record highs in the climate section below. EXTENDED FORECAST... Michael is forecast to continue to move quickly to the northeast into the northern Atlantic waters this weekend allowing for high pressure to build into the Southeastern United States this weekend into early next week. This is will allow for the wind flow to swing back to an easterly direction late this weekend into early next week along with breezy conditions by early next week. Therefore, the weather will become more of a typical late time summer pattern over South Florida with the typical night time and morning activity east coast areas shifting to the interior and west coast metro areas in the afternoon and evening hours. MARINE... The winds will be 10 to 15 knots from the southerly direction tonight into Wednesday over the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay waters, while the Gulf waters will be 15 to 20 knots near-shore to 20 to 25 knots in the offshore waters. The winds will then swing to a more southwest direction for late this week with speeds decreasing to 10 knots or less in all of South Florida waters. The Atlantic seas will be 3 to 5 feet tonight before decreasing to 3 feet or less by Thursday into Friday. The Gulf seas will be 3 to 6 feet near-shore up to 10 feet in the offshore Gulf waters late this afternoon into tonight before slowly decreasing to 3 to 5 feet near-shore up to 8 feet offshore by Wednesday afternoon. The Gulf seas will continue to slowly decrease to 2 feet or less near-shore up to 4 feet offshore by Thursday night into Friday. Therefore, the SCA for the Gulf waters will be extended through Wednesday Afternoon, with an SCEC for the Lake Okeechobee waters for tonight. BEACH FORECAST... There is a High Risk of Rip Currents on Atlantic beaches through at least tonight due to South to Southeast winds around 15 mph. The Gulf Coast beaches of South Florida will also see a threat of rip currents tonight into Wednesday due to the south southwest winds from the influence of Hurricane Michael. Coastal flooding is possible on the Gulf coast tonight as surge from Michael of 1 to 3 feet will combined with astronomically high King tides. More minor inundation will continue along the Atlantic coast over the next few days during high tide periods. CLIMATE... Here are the forecast highs and the record highs for late this week over the eastern areas of South Florida. 10/11/2018 10/11/2018 10/12/2018 10/12/2018 Cities Forecast Highs Record highs Forecast Highs Record Highs MIA 91 92 - 2009 92 91 - 2016 FLL 90 93 - 2008 91 91 - 2011 PBI 90 91 - 2011 92 93 - 1946 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 90 78 92 76 / 50 40 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 91 78 / 40 20 40 30 Miami 91 80 92 78 / 30 20 40 20 Naples 89 79 87 78 / 30 20 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069- 075. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ069. High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EDT this morning for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ676. && DISCUSSION...54/BNB MARINE...54/BNB AVIATION...13 BEACH FORECAST...54/BNB