927 FXUS62 KMFL 091754 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 154 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .AVIATION... Southeasterly winds will remain breezy through this afternoon, generally around 10-14 KT. Showers will be isolated through the remainder of today and into tonight. Thus, did not add any VCSH to the latest package. Aft 10/1500Z, south southeast winds will shift gradually to south southwest by the afternoon. Expect VCSH conds during the day on Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1040 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ UPDATE... Hurricane Michael is now a category 2 hurricane moving northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, staying well west of the local forecast area. Shower activity has been fairly quiet across the region this morning with a few streaming showers across the Atlantic moving onshore. For the remainder of the day Hi-res models continue to show not too much activity besides a few showers along the east coast. Therefore, have lowered POPs some along the eastern metro for the remainder of the day. As for the interior and Gulf there are higher rain chances being closer to the outer inflow rain bands from Hurricane Michael. One to a few of these bands may move over the Gulf waters and potentially impact the western interior and Gulf coast regions. Scattered showers with a slight chance of a thunderstorm possible over this region in the afternoon and evening. Any of these showers or storms would be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The main concern locally will continue to be the Coastal flooding threat with the combination of storm surge and higher than normal astronomical tides along the Gulf Coast. Tonight's high tide and the approach of Hurricane Michael will raise tide levels 1 to 2 feet AGL. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf Coast. As for the Atlantic coast only minor tidal flooding has been reported with high tides. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Atlantic coast. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 744 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ UPDATE... Hurricane Michael continues to move northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Breezy east to southeasterly flow continues with scattered showers this morning moving over east coast sites from the Atlantic. Mainly VFR conditions, but with tempo brief periods to IFR/MVFR possible within a few of the gusty showers. This afternoon scattered showers across the region with an isolated thunderstorm possible. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION... Hurricane Michael, as of 2 AM a Category 1 storm, will be the main weather influence on South Florida through at least midweek. Micheal is forecast to move northward through the eastern Gulf, well west of South Florida early this week while strengthening, and is forecast to reach the Florida Panhandle Wednesday as a major hurricane. South Florida will remain far enough away from Michael to avoid significant direct impacts. However, several indirect impacts are expected and are as follows: * RIP CURRENTS: There is a high risk of rip currents through tonight for Atlantic waters due to moderate easterly wind. The threat for rip currents will continue to increase on the Gulf coast, with a moderate risk today possible reaching high levels Tonight into Wednesday. * COASTAL FLOODING: A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf Coast, where the quite high astronomical tides associated with the annual King Tides will combine with 1 to 3 feet of storm surge from Micheal, along with waves, to produce at least minor flooding near the times of high tides. At this point it appears that tonight's high tide will be highest. For the Atlantic coast, A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect where minor tidal inundation is expected due to King Tides enhanced by onshore winds. * HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING: Overall average rainfall amounts through midweek are forecast to be 1 to 3 inches, which wouldn't lead to flooding. However, localized much higher amounts in training bands are possible, thus there is some threat for flooding. Additionally, with the very high tides expected, any rainfall runoff near coastal areas will have trouble drainage away. Latest guidance today suggests significant periods of dry air working into South Florida over the next few days, which may limit flood potential, but again, there remains at least some degree of threat. * TORNADOES: The airmass remains marginally favorable for waterspouts or at least and isolated tornado threat, especially over western areas, through the period. Model forecast helicity is not particularly high, but as with any tropical systems, there is quite a bit of uncertainty and thus the environment may evolve into one more favorable for tornadic development in the coming day or two. * WIND: Some squalls and/or rainbands will continue to bring a few wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Away from convection, east winds of 15 to 25 mph will prevail, with hazardous conditions on area waters, where a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. As the end of the week approaches, both of the GFS and the ECMWF show Michael getting picked up by an approaching trough and moving into the eastern portion of the country and then moving quickly north northeast. The frontal boundary associated with the trough will approach South Florida, however, the latest model guidance suggests that it will stall out somewhere over Central Florida. There will be enough low level moisture in place across South Florida to support a chance of showers and thunderstorms in many areas. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame will be located over the Lake Okeechobee region as well as northeastern areas during the afternoon and evening hours due to the south to southwesterly flow. Models show the trailing trough and moisture behind Michael lingering across the peninsula into the upcoming weekend. Minor differences between the ECMWF and GFS affect exactly how much moisture remains, but both suggest a continued pattern of scattered showers and storms, highest during the afternoons. Prevailing southwesterly flow will favor the east coast and Lake Okeechobee region for the highest coverage. MARINE... As Hurricane Micheal passes to the west, hazardous winds and seas will prevail today. East to southeasterly winds of 15 to 25 knots will continue through today with seas of 4 to 7 feet in the Atlantic waters and 5 to 9 feet in the Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the Gulf waters through tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the local waters through the middle of the week. There will also be a risk of waterspouts today especially over the Gulf waters. BEACH FORECAST... There is a High Risk of Rip Currents on Atlantic beaches through at least tonight due to east wind of 15 to 25 mph. There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Gulf beaches, and this risk may increase to high tonight and Wednesday due to southerly winds and the influence of Hurricane Michael. Coastal flooding is possible on the Gulf coast today as surge from Michael of 1 to 3 feet will combined with astronomically high King tides. More minor inundation will continue along the Atlantic coast over the next few days during high tide periods. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 78 89 77 90 / 30 40 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 80 89 79 88 / 30 30 30 60 Miami 78 89 77 88 / 30 40 20 60 Naples 77 88 77 88 / 40 60 40 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ069-075. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ656-657-676. && UPDATE...33/Kelly DISCUSSION...55/CWC MARINE...55/CWC AVIATION...27/JT BEACH FORECAST...55/CWC