330 
FXUS64 KMEG 111123
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
623 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

.UPDATE...
See the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

Northwesterly winds are ushering in colder temperatures into the
Mid-South this morning. Currently, temperatures have dropped into
the 50s for locations along and west of the Mississippi River.
Some stratus clouds are developing behind the front. Models are 
not doing a good job picking up on this thus low confidence on how
much stratus develops and how long it sticks around. Would think 
the stratus would dissipate by mid-day as drier air will continue 
to filter into the area. Highs today will range from mid 60s to 
the lower 70s.

SFC high pressure will build over the area into the early part of
the weekend. However, an upper level trof will move through the
Upper Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon into Friday evening and
will bring widespread cloud cover and a chance for showers for
along and north of I-40. Temperatures will be cooler in these
locations due to the cloud cover. Expect highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Clouds will clear by the overnight hours Friday Night, but by
Saturday mid-day, more clouds will begin to spread into the area. 
These clouds will be associated with the remnants of Sergio, that
is currently in the Pacific. Sergio will track northeastward into
Oklahoma by Saturday. Rain from the remnants of Sergio will move
into the Mid-South Saturday Night and will continue through the
rest of the weekend into early next week as the tropical moisture 
interacts with a front that will move into the Mid-South and 
stall out. The front will finally clear the the CWA by late Tuesday
afternoon. Embedded thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and
Sunday Night along and south of I-40. Temperatures will be chilly
especially on Monday and Tuesday. Highs will range from the lower
50s near Piggott, AR to the upper 60s near Aberdeen, MS. 

High pressure will build into the Mid-South on Wednesday and will
bring rain-free conditions. Temperatures will remain below normal
with highs in the 60s.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

An area of low stratus developed across the TN Valley early this
morning with additional stratus upstream over MO/KY. Current
ceilings are not expected to persist past 14z and the upstream
clouds are expected to remain FEW/SCT through early afternoon.
Winds will be gusty from the NNW today but will diminish during 
the afternoon hours. Dry weather will continue today and tonight, 
but rain showers will approach KJBR by mid-morning Friday. 

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$