333 FXUS64 KMEG 110439 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1139 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Updated to include 06z aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 822 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ UPDATE...Evening Update. DISCUSSION... Rain is shifting into middle Tennessee and North Alabama and a cooler, drier airmass is being ushered into the Midsouth on Northwest winds around 5-10mph. Temperatures in the morning will be 15-20 degrees cooler than they were this morning, near to only slightly above normal for the first time in quite a while. The forecast looks on track, no significant changes needed. 30 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ Hurricane Michael is pounding the Gulf Coast and SE U.S. while a cold front pushes across the Mid-South. The front is located just east of the Mississippi River with rapid clearing occurring west of the front. Most of the pre-frontal activity has been focused near the TN River and the AL/MS border though coverage is still quite limited. Temps have hit the lower 80s across much of the area with some mid 80s over NE MS. Winds are generally westerly at 10-15 mph. Tonight...Lingering showers over eastern sections will quickly push east as the front sweeps through. Expect mostly clear skies by morning with lows in the 50s areawide with some upper 40s along the KY border. Thursday through Saturday...Fall weather is here! High pressure will build over the area with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Thursday and lows in the 40s Thursday night. Could see a few upper 30s along the KY border. A fast moving mid level shortwave will bring some clouds and perhaps a shower to the northern tier late Friday afternoon into Friday evening with skies clearing out again by Saturday morning. Cool temps will continue into the weekend. Saturday looks dry with high pressure continuing. Saturday night through Monday...High pressure shifts east and the flow aloft becomes more zonal and active. A mid level shortwave moving out of the southern plains along with surface low pressure tracking through the ARKLATEX will spread rain into the Mid-South Saturday night into Sunday. At this point we start to see some large spreads in the main operational models and a wide range of solutions in the ensemble systems. The 12z GFS is more progressive in moving the front through with dry weather from Monday through the middle of the week. The mid level trough on the ECMWF does not dig as far south which slows down the progress of the front so rain chances linger at least into Monday. Kept Tuesday dry for now but that is tenuous at best. Went with small pops on Wednesday since models are highly variable. Though rain chances are quite uncertain from Monday through Wednesday at least the cooler fall temperatures are a safe bet. SJM && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions will persist throughout the period as high pressure builds into the region. Gusty winds will be likely during the morning and afternoon hours, subsiding by late in the period. ZDM && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$