237 FXUS64 KMEG 101742 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .UPDATE... Updated to include 18Z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1006 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION... Most of the morning rain has broken up and moved north of the area. There are just a few light showers approaching the TN River in SE West TN attm. Ahead of the approaching cold front, now moving across Arkansas, a few breaks in the clouds will help temps climb into the lower 80s most places. A few mid to upper 80s are possible across parts of NE Mississippi. Expect some redevelopment as the cold front pushes in this afternoon though the CAMs do not look too robust. This morning's precip has stabilized the atmosphere to some extent which may help limit the amount of redevelopment. As a result cut precip chances across much of the area. Left likely pops across eastern sections near the TN River otrw went with chance/slight chance pops elsewhere. Looking ahead in the not too distant future. Temps will drop into the 50s across nearly all of the Mid-South by Thursday morning. Fall is coming. SJM PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ Today will be the last day of summer like conditions for the Mid- South. A cold front will push into the area late this afternoon into the early evening hours and will finally bring a taste of autumn to the region. A band of showers with a couple of embedded thunderstorms are currently moving across Eastern Arkansas while showers are beginning to pop up across West Tennessee near the Tennessee River. All of this activity is well ahead of the actual front which is located across Eastern Oklahoma at this time. Several of the CAM models show this band of showers over Eastern Arkansas diminishing over the next several hours. New convection will begin to fire up after the mid-morning hours as the front approaches the area but the coverage will be very scattered and not every location will see rain. A few showers or thunderstorms may linger near the Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi during the early evening hours, but will quickly push east as the front moves through. Lows tonight will be 15-20 degrees cooler as skies clear and northerly winds usher in the colder air. Temperatures will remain below normal through the beginning of next week. Surface high pressure will initially build into the area and will remain around through the early part of the weekend. The high will bring mainly dry conditions to the area. Although, an upper level trof may bring some light showers to Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee Friday Night as it swings through the region. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will begin to develop across the Southern Plains by Saturday Night. Rain ahead of the system will begin to spread into the area Saturday Night with better chances coming during the Sunday into Monday time frame as the SFC low tracks northeastward through the CWA. The SFC low and associated cold front will clear the area by Monday Night allowing for high pressure to rebuild into the region. Could see some low temperatures drop into the upper 30s Monday Night. KRM && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs A cold front will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon into this evening. Temporary MVFR conditions possible as the front moves through the area. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the period with clearing expected. S/SW winds 7-12 kts with a few higher gusts will veer NW with frontal passage. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$