657 
FXUS64 KMEG 101134
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
634 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.UPDATE...
See the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

Today will be the last day of summer like conditions for the Mid-
South. A cold front will push into the area late this afternoon 
into the early evening hours and will finally bring a taste of 
autumn to the region.

A band of showers with a couple of embedded thunderstorms are
currently moving across Eastern Arkansas while showers are
beginning to pop up across West Tennessee near the Tennessee
River. All of this activity is well ahead of the actual front
which is located across Eastern Oklahoma at this time. Several of
the CAM models show this band of showers over Eastern Arkansas
diminishing over the next several hours. New convection will begin
to fire up after the mid-morning hours as the front approaches the
area but the coverage will be very scattered and not every 
location will see rain.

A few showers or thunderstorms may linger near the Tennessee River
and Northeast Mississippi during the early evening hours, but will
quickly push east as the front moves through. Lows tonight will be
15-20 degrees cooler as skies clear and northerly winds usher in
the colder air.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the beginning of
next week. Surface high pressure will initially build into the
area and will remain around through the early part of the weekend.
The high will bring mainly dry conditions to the area. Although, 
an upper level trof may bring some light showers to Northeast 
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee Friday 
Night as it swings through the region.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system will begin to develop across the
Southern Plains by Saturday Night. Rain ahead of the system will
begin to spread into the area Saturday Night with better chances
coming during the Sunday into Monday time frame as the SFC low
tracks northeastward through the CWA. The SFC low and associated
cold front will clear the area by Monday Night allowing for high
pressure to rebuild into the region. Could see some low
temperatures drop into the upper 30s Monday Night.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/12z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings have developed across much of the Mid-South this
morning and will hang around through midday. An area of rain
showers continues to decay over the region at this time but
further redevelopment of showers and a few thunderstorms is
expected this afternoon as a cold front moves across the area.
South winds will shift from the west behind the front and may gust
to 15 kts or so this afternoon. Winds will veer from the northwest
overnight, persisting at 8-10 kts. Skies will clear from west to
east late today and tonight as dry air moves into the area.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$