347 
FXUS64 KMEG 100811
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
311 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today will be the last day of summer like conditions for the Mid-South.
A cold front will push into the area late this afternoon into the
early evening hours and will finally bring a taste of autumn to
the region.

A band of showers with a couple of embedded thunderstorms are
currently moving across Eastern Arkansas while showers are
beginning to pop up across West Tennessee near the Tennessee
River. All of this activity is well ahead of the actual front
which is located across Eastern Oklahoma at this time. Several of
the CAM models show this band of showers over Eastern Arkansas
diminishing over the next several hours. New convection will begin
to fire up after the mid-morning hours as the front approaches the
area but the coverage will be very scattered and not every 
location will see rain.

A few showers or thunderstorms may linger near the Tennessee River
and Northeast Mississippi during the early evening hours, but will
quickly push east as the front moves through. Lows tonight will be
15-20 degrees cooler as skies clear and northerly winds usher in
the colder air.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the beginning of
next week. Surface high pressure will initially build into the
area and will remain around through the early part of the weekend.
The high will bring mainly dry conditions to the area. Although, 
an upper level trof may bring some light showers to Northeast 
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee Friday 
Night as it swings through the region.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system will begin to develop across the
Southern Plains by Saturday Night. Rain ahead of the system will
begin to spread into the area Saturday Night with better chances
coming during the Sunday into Monday time frame as the SFC low
tracks northeastward through the CWA. The SFC low and associated
cold front will clear the area by Monday Night allowing for high
pressure to rebuild into the region. Could see some low
temperatures drop into the upper 30s Monday Night.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF cycle

Ceilings will start to lower overnight as showers move into the 
area. By Wednesday morning, IFR ceilings will be found across the 
region with showers and thunderstorms expected during the morning 
and afternoon hours. VFR condition should begin to return to the
region Wednesday evening. Winds will be mainly from the southeast
at 5 to 10 knots tonight shifting to the south Wednesday morning.
Winds will become more northwesterly by Wednesday evening.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$