838 FXUS64 KMEG 100020 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 720 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .UPDATE...Evening update. && .DISCUSSION... All eyes are on the gulf as Hurricane Michael approaches the Florida panhandle, but we have weather of a significantly less severe nature approaching from the West. Adjusted pops a bit overnight. Most of the rain with embedded thunderstorms should stay west of the Mississippi River before midnight, and slowly spread across the remainder of the Midsouth through the early morning hours. Rainfall totals should stay well under one half of an inch for most of the region...highest in Northeast Arkansas. Overnight lows will fall into the low to middle 70s with a significantly cooler airmass moving into the region tomorrow. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ Perhaps the last full warm and humid day across the Midsouth. Current temperatures were in the mid and upper 80s with southeast winds quite breezy at 10 to 25mph. Skies were partly sunny with a few light showers breaking out over northeast Arkansas and northeast Mississippi. No thunder currently reported. For tonight through tomorrow...model consistency has been high concerning the evolution of the deep trough and associated front in the Plains and the track of Hurricane Michael hitting the central Florida panhandle. Surface low pressure currently over south central Kansas will move northeast to near Minneapolis by 12z Wednesday. During this time the associated cold front will progress east from central Oklahoma to central Arkansas. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage late tonight in the west then overspread the entire Midsouth tomorrow. A few breaks in the clouds in the morning across the east may lead to afternoon CAPE amounts reaching 2000 j/kg by 3pm...and with mediocre lapse rates near 6C along with bulk shear amounts approaching 30kts a strong storm can't be ruled out over northwest Tennessee along the passing front. Have added this potential threat in the afternoon HWO. As the front pushes through temperatures should fall a good ten degrees with continued falling through the early evening hours before steadying out. Rainfall amounts are expected to vary considerably with most folks receiving at least a quarter of an inch. Rain chances with cloud cover will exit west to east tomorrow night with lows ranging from the upper 40s north to low 60s south. Thursday through Saturday...mostly dry this period as a 1025mb surface high drops south into the Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. Winds will start off northerly veering easterly by Saturday. One caveat will be a passing shortwave Friday night that may bring a brief period of cloud cover and light rain across the northern counties. Temperatures for the three days will average about ten degrees below normal with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The drier humidity will allow for crisp evenings in the 50s and overnight lows down into the 40s. Wouldn't be surprised if a few stations along the Tennessee River fell to 39F. Clouds and rain chances will ramp up Saturday night as the next shortwave coming southeast from the Rockies approaches. Sunday through Tuesday...the Euro appears to be coming around with the GFS thinking this period. A closed low may become cutoff over the Baja of California with a stronger northern branch of the jet stream carving out a trough over the central states. The increasing westerlies over the Midsouth will provide for frontogenesis from the ARKLATEX to the Ohio Valley. Clouds and generally stratiform precipitation will overspread the region Sunday and Monday with the heaviest rainfall along I-40. A brief break in activity may be seen Tuesday...with the unsettled conditions returning later next week. The reinforcing Canadian airmass will drop high temperatures down into the 50s and low 60s for most Midsoutherners starting Monday. JAB && .AVIATION...00Z TAF cycle VFR conditions should continue through the evening hours. Ceilings will start to lower overnight as showers move into the area. By Wednesday morning, IFR ceilings will be found across the region with showers and thunderstorms expected during the morning and afternoon hours. Winds will be mainly from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots tonight shifting to the south Wednesday morning. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$