301 
FXUS64 KMEG 091805
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
105 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.UPDATE...

Updated to include 18Z aviation discussion below. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge of high pressure will continue to shift east today
as an upper level trof digs across the Southern Plains. The cold
front associated with the upper trof will finally begin to push
east on Wednesday. As a result, the Mid-South will see at least
one more warm day with areas east of the Mississippi River likely
seeing two more days. Chances for rain will remain small until the
front pushes into the area Wednesday into Wednesday Night.
Continued with likely POPS for Wednesday, but several of the CAM 
models indicate the development of showers and thunderstorms ahead
of the front will not be as widespread as previously thought and 
will be more of a hit or miss variety as much of the moisture may
be shunted to the southeast with Hurricane Michael. 

The front will bring much cooler temperatures into the area and
will finally bring a taste of autumn to the area. Dewpoints will 
actually drop into the 40s behind the front which hasn't happened 
since the spring. The cool and dry conditions will prevail through
early part of the weekend.

By the latter part of the weekend, winds will turn around to the
south ahead of another approaching cold front. Dewpoints will
climb back into the 50s. Chances for showers will begin occurring
Saturday Night with better chances coming Sunday into Monday as
the front moves into the region. Can't rule out a few
thunderstorms occurring ahead of the front as well. Overall,
temperatures will remain slightly below to below normal during the
Thursday through Monday time frame. 

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Mainly VFR conds over the next 12 hours. Gusty southwest winds 
will continue through sundown at all sites today. Expect sustained
winds 12 to 15 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts. Chances for 
light showers will overspread from west to east during the 
overnight hours. Coverage will be low, so VCSH was used at all 
sites. An MVFR deck is expected to move in at all sites by early 
morning. 

A cold front will push into Mid-South at the end of this TAF 
period. Added a VCTS for scattered thunderstorms near JBR and MEM.
Winds will shift to the northwest after sundown tomorrow. 

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$