093 FXUS64 KMAF 110932 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 432 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .DISCUSSION... A surface high pressure ridge is dropping into central Texas today giving a light return east to southeast flow for West Texas. Any warming this might provide will be offset by increasing clouds so highs will not be much different from yesterday. Increasing moisture and instability associated with Tropical Storm Sergio in the eastern Pacific will provide a slight chance for rain today and tomorrow, with chances greatly increasing Friday night and Saturday as the main circulation center passes across the area. Models show the path of this circulation to be anywhere from the northern Permian Basin to the Texas Panhandle so rain chances will be highest in our northern CWA decreasing to the south. As Sergio passes east, a low over southern California will move east and be reinforced by a trough dropping south out of Canada bringing the strongest front of the season to the area on Sunday. Frontal timing will be critical for highs on Sunday but as of now it appears that the front will be moving through most of the area during the daytime with a morning or early afternoon high and temperatures steadily falling thereafter. Monday will be the coldest day thanks to strong cold air advection and isentropic lift creating clouds and light rain all day. Lows Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with the chance of a light freeze in northern Lea County and highs staying in the 40s everywhere except the Rio Grande. Most of the trough moves east Monday night reducing rain chances, however the southern portion of the trough will break off into a weak closed low and retrograde west into a Rex block pattern. This will keep us under a southwesterly flow and leave rain chances, though low, in the forecast through the middle of next week. Temperatures will warm but remain below normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 69 59 79 60 / 20 30 20 70 Carlsbad 74 57 78 57 / 20 10 20 70 Dryden 73 62 80 66 / 20 20 20 50 Fort Stockton 74 60 80 62 / 30 20 20 50 Guadalupe Pass 71 55 74 54 / 10 10 20 70 Hobbs 67 56 78 55 / 40 30 10 70 Marfa 74 55 78 55 / 20 20 20 50 Midland Intl Airport 70 61 80 61 / 30 30 20 70 Odessa 70 60 80 61 / 30 30 20 70 Wink 74 60 82 62 / 30 20 10 70 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 80/10