102 FXUS64 KMAF 110531 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1231 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .DISCUSSION... See 06z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Winds will be light out of the southeast overnight. Low ceilings are expected to develop and move across the area beginning around 12z. Ceilings will improve beginning around 18z but may still remain MVFR for some places such of HOB. Winds will become elevated with some gusts out of the southeast late Thursday morning. There is a chance of thunderstorms during the day Thursday but probabilities are too low to include at this time. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ An overnight/early morning cold front has kept high temperatures in the 60s and 70s today with dry conditions areawide. Temperatures will begin to warm a bit Thursday as a surface trough develops across eastern NM, extending south through western TX. Moisture will increase with stronger SE winds so perhaps with the help of some weak upper forcing with a passing upper disturbance and lift associated with convergence along the surface trough axis, we could see some afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the area through Thursday evening. Friday, we turn our attention to the approach of the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio, currently in the eastern Pacific. Sergio is expected to move NE through Mexico Friday then NM and W TX Friday night and Saturday morning. Ahead of Sergio, there could be a short window for a few strong to severe storms Friday afternoon mainly across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos regions as instability increases. Otherwise, upper lift associated with the remnants of Sergio will increase significantly Friday night with showers and thunderstorms increasing from SW to NE. It is unclear, at this time, where the highest rainfall totals will be as forecast models differ on the path of Sergio a bit. Flooding and flash flooding will be the main concern during this time, especially across areas that have already been saturated by recent rainfall. Rain chances quickly end Saturday afternoon but temperatures will remain cool with highs generally in the 60s north and 70s south. After the remnants of Sergio move on, a fairly decent cold front will move through the region sometime Sunday. Models differ on the timing of the front with the GFS bringing it through early in the day and ECMWF holding off until Sunday evening. Leaning toward the cooler solution of the GFS and will trend highs several degrees cooler than blended models forecasting highs generally in the 60s. If the front arrives Sunday morning, cloud cover and CAA throughout the day will likely hold temperatures in the 50s. Will have to wait and see if the models come into better agreement. Regardless, Sunday night in the 40s and Monday afternoon in the 50s look likely. The cold front will result in increased cloud cover and light rain (or drizzle at times) as warm, moist air overrides the colder air at the surface. High temperatures will moderate a bit during this time, potentially warming back into the 60s by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 60 78 59 71 / 20 20 60 80 Carlsbad 57 79 58 75 / 10 20 60 60 Dryden 63 80 66 81 / 10 20 30 50 Fort Stockton 61 81 62 77 / 20 20 40 60 Guadalupe Pass 56 75 55 70 / 10 20 60 50 Hobbs 56 78 56 71 / 30 20 60 70 Marfa 55 78 55 75 / 20 20 50 40 Midland Intl Airport 61 79 61 73 / 20 20 50 80 Odessa 60 80 60 73 / 20 20 50 70 Wink 60 82 62 76 / 20 20 50 60 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 99/99/