813 FXUS64 KMAF 101721 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1221 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Frontal remnants are dissipating and light S-SE winds will persist, mostly less than 10kts. Otherwise we see the potential for low clouds IFR-MVFR threshold in NAM12 soundings and have included TEMPO groups at HOB/MAF 11Z-15Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION... See 12z aviation discussion below. AVIATION... Light northerly winds will become southeast to south by the afternoon and will remain mostly light. VFR conditions are generally expected although very brief MVFR ceilings may occur at HOB and MAF this morning. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION... A cold front has moved into the area this morning and it is bringing the coolest temperatures of the season with readings dropping into the 40s and low 50s in many locations this morning. The front has also brought drier air that will bring a brief end to the precipitation today before PoPs return Thursday due to a weak upper disturbance. Low PoPs can be expected Thursday and Friday but rain chances really increase over the weekend as the remnants of Tropical Storm Sergio, currently in the eastern Pacific, move across Mexico and into southern New Mexico and West Texas. Of course due to the tropical nature of this system, there will be abundant moisture and a return of a flood threat. The system will be fast moving and this should somewhat limit rainfall amounts though with significant recent rains it may not take much to cause flooding problems. In the wake of the departing tropical system, models are showing another upper trough developing to our west. This will bring a strong cold front early Monday and giving us our first real taste of fall. Cloudy skies and areas of rain will keep temps down on Monday with only a slow warming trend thereafter. Weak isentropic lift may allow for a broad area of rain to develop but rainfall amounts will be much lower than the convective precip expected over the weekend. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 53 74 59 76 / 0 20 20 20 Carlsbad 50 79 57 78 / 0 20 20 20 Dryden 60 78 63 79 / 0 20 10 20 Fort Stockton 56 79 61 80 / 0 30 20 30 Guadalupe Pass 51 75 56 73 / 0 20 20 20 Hobbs 49 74 56 76 / 0 30 30 20 Marfa 49 78 54 78 / 0 20 20 30 Midland Intl Airport 55 76 60 78 / 0 30 20 20 Odessa 55 76 60 78 / 0 30 20 20 Wink 55 80 60 81 / 0 30 20 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$