422 
FXUS64 KMAF 100514
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will shift to the north overnight and be light then will
shift towards the south Wednesday afternoon. Generally VFR
conditions are expected although there is a slight chance of brief MVFR
ceilings with the northerly wind shift.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ 

A weak cold front will move south into the PB/SE NM tonight as mid-
level trough passes. Post-frontal air is drier making for a good 
set-up for cool temperatures Wed AM. Even though there will wsw 
mid-level flow Wed PM there is not enough time for the lee trough
progress east and thus high temperatures will remain below average.
Temperatures will slowly moderate Thur AM-PM. NAM12 develops 
light QPF Thur. This appears to be in association with a 80-90kt 
3h jet and surface based instability, NAM12 sounding does show 
weak CINH. For now low order PoPs are warranted. Otherwise SE 
winds will be on the breezy side in most areas Thur. Meanwhile 
models are in good agreement that remnants of a Sergio will get 
caught into the sw flow aloft, probably arriving in northern 
Coahuila, MX late Fri night and W TX/SE NM early Sat AM. ECMWF is 
a slightly farther n than GFS and of course a few hundred miles 
will make a big difference on where heavy rain threat will set-up.
It is interesting that there is a well defined surface low 
reflection? GFES does show that plus 1-2 standard deviation PW 
will stream across W TX/SE NM, it is certainly possible that we 
could have more heavy rain in the Fri night-Sat PM time frame. 
Just to put a number out there, the GFS QPF accumulation does 
show over 1"-3" possible in PB/SE NM. A cold front will follow 
Sunday with a much stronger re-enforcement of colder air, 
probably before 12Z Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  73  58  71 /   0  10  10  30 
Carlsbad                       50  78  56  75 /   0  20  20  20 
Dryden                         60  77  62  78 /   0  10  10  20 
Fort Stockton                  58  78  60  77 /   0  20  10  30 
Guadalupe Pass                 50  75  55  71 /   0  10  20  20 
Hobbs                          50  73  55  73 /   0  30  30  40 
Marfa                          49  77  54  76 /   0  20  20  30 
Midland Intl Airport           55  76  60  73 /   0  20  20  40 
Odessa                         55  76  59  73 /   0  30  20  40 
Wink                           55  79  60  77 /   0  20  20  40 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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