584 FXUS64 KMAF 091909 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 209 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .DISCUSSION... A weak cold front will move south into the PB/SE NM tonight as mid- level trough passes. Post-frontal air is drier making for a good set-up for cool temperatures Wed AM. Even though there will wsw mid-level flow Wed PM there is not enough time for the lee trough progress east and thus high temperatures will remain below average. Temperatures will slowly moderate Thur AM-PM. NAM12 develops light QPF Thur. This appears to be in association with a 80-90kt 3h jet and surface based instability, NAM12 sounding does show weak CINH. For now low order PoPs are warranted. Otherwise SE winds will be on the breezy side in most areas Thur. Meanwhile models are in good agreement that remnants of a Sergio will get caught into the sw flow aloft, probably arriving in northern Coahuila, MX late Fri night and W TX/SE NM early Sat AM. ECMWF is a slightly farther n than GFS and of course a few hundred miles will make a big difference on where heavy rain threat will set-up. It is interesting that there is a well defined surface low reflection? GFES does show that plus 1-2 standard deviation PW will stream across W TX/SE NM, it is certainly possible that we could have more heavy rain in the Fri night-Sat PM time frame. Just to put a number out there, the GFS QPF accumulation does show over 1"-3" possible in PB/SE NM. A cold front will follow Sunday with a much stronger re-enforcement of colder air, probably before 12Z Mon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 50 75 53 73 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 48 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 20 Dryden 58 81 60 77 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 52 78 58 78 / 0 0 0 20 Guadalupe Pass 46 71 50 75 / 0 0 0 10 Hobbs 45 74 50 73 / 0 0 0 30 Marfa 45 76 49 77 / 0 0 0 20 Midland Intl Airport 52 76 55 76 / 0 0 0 20 Odessa 51 76 55 76 / 0 0 0 30 Wink 50 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$