788 FXUS64 KMAF 091720 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF issuance... No major aviation concerns the next 12 hours or so with VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals. Gusty west winds through early evening will diminish overnight. Otherwise, a weak cold front will sag south into northern areas, shifting winds to the north at HOB and MAF. In addition, low cigs could accompany this front. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 723 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ UPDATE... We have let the flash flood watch expire and lowered the PoPs. DISCUSSION... Storms have mostly moved east of the area and flooding threat has mostly ended. However there are some areas that are still flooded, including east Midland/Glasscock Counties where areal flood warnings. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ DISCUSSION... An upper trough is centered over the Four Corners region and is providing significant lift over West Texas. This lift combined with good moisture is contributing to rain and thunderstorms moving across West Texas and southeast New Mexico. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 am CDT. Most of the rain is expected to move east and north of the CWA after this time. The upper trough will move eastward today and begin moving over the region. This will result in west surface winds moving across the area behind the rain. Temperatures will be a little cooler today due to a Pacific front with west winds moving across the area along with height falls from the upper trough passing over the region. A northerly wind shift will move into the area tonight and will keep temperatures cool during the day on Wednesday with a surface high nearby. Another upper trough will approach the region on Thursday as southeast surface winds return to the area. This will allow for an increase in upper lift and low-level moisture and precipitation chances will increase on Thursday as a result. This trend will continue into Friday with high temperatures mostly in the 70s. The models differ on the placement of the upper trough by next weekend but both the GFS and ECMWF are showing rain across the CWA on Saturday. The upper trough is expected to move over the central conus on Sunday with a cold front pushing into the area. This cold front may cool temperatures down in the 60s for much of the Permian Basin on Sunday and continuing into the early part of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 50 73 52 / 30 10 10 0 Carlsbad 75 48 76 49 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 81 56 83 59 / 30 10 0 10 Fort Stockton 75 53 77 57 / 20 10 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 66 47 70 53 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 71 45 73 49 / 20 10 0 0 Marfa 69 40 74 45 / 20 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 75 51 74 53 / 20 10 0 0 Odessa 75 51 74 53 / 20 10 0 0 Wink 76 50 76 55 / 20 10 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 27/49