407 FXUS64 KLZK 110850 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 350 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night Much cooler air continues to move into the region behind the cold front that moved through the state on Wed. SFC high pressure to the NW of AR will continue to move closer to the state through this afternoon...with NW SFC flow continuing. This will result in temps remaining below normal...with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s for most areas. Some low 70s may be seen across the SERN counties. Precip chances will remain low. An upper level shortwave trough will drop SE towards the state on Fri...with some increased chances for SHRA across the NWRN/NRN half of the CWA throughout the daytime hrs Fri. Lesser chances will be seen further south. This upper shortwave will shift east by the end of the short term period...with precip chances decreasing once again. Temps will remain below normal. Some areas may see even cooler temps on Fri due to the rainfall and cloud cover...mainly across the NWRN half of the CWA. && .LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday No major changes were made to the going fcst thru the weekend into the first half of next week. While much cooler temps wl be noted, it will also rmn unsettled acrs the region, with several rounds of rain expected. While the fcst confidence with temps is good, rainfall trends are somewhat lower due to the overall synoptic pattern set-up and timing of individual shrtwv energy and assocd PoPs. Sfc high pres wl be shifting to the E of the FA on Sat, as a new CDFNT apchs fm the NW. Increasing WAA pattern/lift wl result in rain chances sloly returning fm W to E Sat, primarily over Wrn and Srn AR. PoPs wl ramp up Sat night and Sun as the front works in the state. Rainfall wl be aided by a combo of moisture fm the Gulf, as well as from the remnants of T.S. Sergio in the Pacific, that wl move into the Srn Plains late Sat. Locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out, but this looks to be more of a stratiform rain event. By Sun night and Mon, the aforementioned front wl be sloly shifting to the SE of AR. The various model solutions are a bit different with the placement of the front during this timeframe since it wl be encountering SW flow aloft. Either way, another round of rain is forecast to affect much of the FA as several upr impulses traverse the front, setting up an overrunning pattern. Cannot rule out some convection S of the front on Mon, but that wl be determined later based on where the warm sector sets up. Some lingering rain chances wl exist Mon night into early Tues as another front slides to the SE thru the FA. Sfc high pres wl settle into the Mid-South by the end of the PD, bringing a reinforcing shot of much cooler and drier air. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 65 44 58 44 / 0 0 40 20 Camden AR 71 49 68 53 / 0 0 20 20 Harrison AR 60 42 55 44 / 0 10 60 20 Hot Springs AR 68 50 60 50 / 0 0 30 20 Little Rock AR 67 48 60 50 / 0 0 30 20 Monticello AR 68 48 69 54 / 0 0 20 10 Mount Ida AR 67 49 60 49 / 0 0 40 20 Mountain Home AR 62 42 54 44 / 0 10 60 20 Newport AR 66 44 57 46 / 0 0 40 20 Pine Bluff AR 67 47 65 51 / 0 0 20 20 Russellville AR 67 49 57 48 / 0 10 40 20 Searcy AR 66 45 58 45 / 0 0 40 20 Stuttgart AR 67 46 63 50 / 0 0 30 20 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Short Term...62 / Long Term...44