595 FXUS64 KLZK 110526 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .DISCUSSION... Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below... && .AVIATION... Expect VFR conditions to be seen throughout this TAF period for most terminals. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 233 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018) SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday Much drier and cooler air will be in place for a good portion of the short term period of the forecast as the long awaited cold front pushes east of Arkansas, and surface high pressure moves into the region. At the 18z hour, the cold front was moving through the far eastern portions of the state with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s across the northwest, to upper 70s across central and southern portions of the state. Rain chances will return to the forecast on Friday as an upper level shortwave trough approaches and moves through the midwest. However, the best chances for precipitation will be across the northern portions of the state, where we will see better moisture recovery and higher Theta-E values. Temperatures will obviously be the exciting part of the forecast, with lows overnight tonight and into Thursday expected to be in the lower 40s across the north, ranging to the lower 50s across the south. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the lower 60s and lower 70s, with similar lows to those mentioned above. LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday Much cooler air and at least a few rounds of rainfall are expected through the long term portion of the forecast. At the start of the period, high pressure will be in place at the surface with a shortwave trough moving east across the Ohio Valley, away from the area. This feature could help provide some showers to mainly northern parts of the state. Later on Saturday and into Sunday, remnants of Pacific TS Sergio will progress northeast toward the state from the SW US. At the same time, a cold front will be making its way toward Arkansas from the northwest. The remnant low pressure system from Sergio looks to track along the Red River and move across southern Arkansas through Sunday. This will help provide widespread rain across the state, but with the low taking a more southerly track thunder should be limited to far southern Arkansas. By Monday, the trailing cold front will move through and high pressure will build in at the surface. The ridge will set up across the Southern Plains and will be 1030mb+ in strength. This will help influence temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with morning lows bottoming out in the 30s across northern Arkansas. Additionally, highs across much of the state will hold in the 50s on Monday. Near the end of the period, yet another cold front is expected to traverse the area bringing another chance of showers and continued cool temperatures. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...62