393 FXUS64 KLZK 101734 AAB AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .AVIATION... For the 18z TAFs, VFR to MVFR conditions will continue as low and mid level clouds linger across Arkansas. Some terminals could continue to gust up to 20kts or less, but should diminish this evening. The cold front will continue pushing eastward through the state, and should be east of Arkansas by the late afternoon hours. Behind the front, skies should clear with winds out of the northwest around 10kts or less. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 627 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018) AVIATION... Cold front will move across the state today. Conditions will improve, with all areas going from ifr/mvfr to vfr by mid to late morning. Winds will shift from southwest to northwest behind the front and will be gusty at times. However, gradient will subside behind the front and all areas should be clear by this evening. PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 340 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018) SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night Lots of things going on this morning at the surface. The primary cold front extends from southeast Kansas, through eastern Oklahoma, to the DFW Metroplex. Ahead of the front, a weaker boundary was moving through central Arkansas, with showers and thunderstorms moving into eastern Arkansas ahead of it. In the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Michael was approaching western Florida. Showers/storms in eastern Arkansas will translate eastward this morning, diminishing as drier air/subsidence is drawn in on the northwest quadrant of Michael. There could be some additional showers this morning along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the state, but any precipitation will come to an end in the wake of the frontal passage. Much more seasonal air will follow the front. More importantly, it will actually feel like fall. Highs today will likely occur during the morning hours in the western half, with temperatures leveling off behind the front, and possibly falling a few degrees during the afternoon. Ahead of the front over the eastern half, highs will be a little warmer, with maxes pushing 80 degrees. Tonight, surface high pressure will move in behind the front, with clearing. Temperatures will fall into the 40s in much of the state. On Thursday, it'll be even better, with most locations staying in the 60s (except for southern Arkansas). I say it's about time. LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday Night Below normal temps will be seen to start off the long term period...with lows Fri morning dropping down into the low 40s to around 50. Highs will only warm into the upper 50s to around 70 Fri afternoon. An upper shortwave will pass rapidly east...just north of AR...on Fri into Sat. This will bring some slight chance to low end chance POPs for some SHRA to portions of the NRN/NWRN CWA. On Sat into Sun...the remnants of TS Sergio will be lifting rapidly NE over TX...about the same time a new cold front will be surging south across the Plains. The SFC low looks to translate east over AR on Sun...with the cold front following shortly Sun night into Mon. During this timeframe...expect SHRA/TSRA to become more widespread across much of the CWA. While current thinking has the threat for SVR low...cannot rule out a few strong to SVR storms possible on Sun. This threat will be conditional on the exact track of the SFC low and the timing as it progresses east...which at this time still remains somewhat uncertain. At this point however...do think at least some portion of the CWA will be within the warm sector of this system...likely the SRN portions of the state. There will be some threat for heavy rainfall as the remnants pass over AR. The good news is much of the med range model guidance continues to show this system moving reasonably rapidly across the area...which should limit the threat for widespread very heavy rainfall. Even so...do think some areas may see an inch or two...with locally heavier amounts possible. By Tue...SFC high pressure will settle across the region...with drier and cooler weather expected to wrap up the forecast. FIRE WEATHER... No significant fire weather issues are expected through the period. As drier air filters in behind a cold front today, rain chances will end, with minimum humidity falling below 50 percent. Humidity will recover this weekend, with another system bringing a significant chance of rain to the state on Saturday and Sunday. 20 foot winds are expected to remain below critical thresholds. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...CROSS