000 FXUS61 KLWX 110138 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 938 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area late Thursday night. Hurricane Michael is expected to pass southeast of the area early Friday morning. An upper-level disturbance will pass through Friday night into early Saturday followed by high pressure for the rest of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Moisture continues to surge northeastward this evening ahead of Hurricane Michael and an approaching cold front. Shower coverage will continue to increase overnight and may be heavy at times. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible given some elevated instability. In addition, with abundant low level moisture, it will be another night of low stratus. Lows tonight in the 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Cold front approaching from the west will be interacting with moisture associated with what is expected to be Tropical Storm Michael. Widespread showers, some of them moderate to heavy, are expected all day Thu into Thu evening with total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across central VA and south/east of I-95, with heaviest over southern Maryland and portions of central VA where localized amounts of up to 4 inches are possible. Less than one inch is expected NW of the metro areas toward western MD. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect where the heaviest amounts are expected. Rain will begin to end from NW to SE Thu evening and should be out of the area Fri morning. Gusty NW winds will occur behind front late Thu night with 6-hr period of gusts of 35-45 mph. It's possible a small window occurs late Thursday night and early Friday morning where some gusts near 50 mph occur in southern Maryland, and will need to be monitored for a possible Wind Advisory. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level flow forecast to be zonal through the extended forecast period. Thus, looking for several weaker, transitory systems over the time frame. Shortwave energy will be ejecting on Saturday; any precipitation chances will come during the morning/midday hours. High pressure will follow Saturday night into Sunday morning. Return flow/warm advection ensuing by afternoon with precipitation possible by night fall. However, not all guidance sets in synch with the precipitation layout; thus, PoPs will be low. The attendant cold front would be through sometime on Monday...again with timing differences between GFS/ECMWF. Such a sequence suggests that Tuesday would be a day of high pressure, but with another shortwave/jet max lurking across the Great Lakes and recognizing timing variabilities of such a pattern, confidence slightly on the lower side. Temperatures likely to be on the cooler side. The warmest day, with near normal temperatures, will come on Monday before cold frontal passage. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cigs becoming MVFR/IFR late tonight with frequent showers. MVFR cigs with showers persist through Thu evening. Abrupt wind shift expected with fropa late Thu night and gusts 30-35 kt for about a 6-hr period due to pressure surge. Gusty winds 25-30 kt Fri diminishing Fri night. No sig wx Fri through Mon. && .MARINE... Winds expected to strengthen tonight in southerly flow as SCA goes into effect. There will likely be a drop/lull in winds Thursday before they strengthen again late Thursday night out of the north/northwest. A Gale Warning has been issued for late Thursday night into Friday for wind gusts 35-45 knots. It's possible some gusts may approach 50 knots over the open waters of the central Chesapeake Bay, and further consideration for a Storm Warning may be warranted. Otherwise, SCA conditions are likely to persist through Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding is expected through Thu evening as southerly flow strengthens and water levels rise. Blowout tides expected Fri under a strong NW flow. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ014. Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for MDZ016>018. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ017. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ011. VA...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for VAZ055>057. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ054. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ531>534-536>543. Gale Warning from midnight Thursday night to noon EDT Friday for ANZ530>543. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ530-535. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...MM/LFR SHORT TERM...MM/LFR LONG TERM...HTS AVIATION...MM/LFR/HTS MARINE...MM/LFR/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR