160 
FXUS61 KLWX 101901
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
301 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will cross the area late Thursday 
night. Hurricane Michael is expected to pass southeast of the 
area early Friday morning. An upper-level disturbance will pass 
through Friday night into early Saturday followed by high 
pressure for the rest of the weekend. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Showers will continue to increase this afternoon as moisture 
associated with Hurricane Michael advects north on SSE flow. 
As heights fall in advance of longwave trough to the west and
approach from Michael and moisture deepens expect showers to
become heavier late tonight into Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Cold front approaching from the west will be interacting with
moisture associated with what is expected to be Tropical Storm
Michael. Widespread showers, some of them moderate to heavy, 
are expected all day Thu into Thu evening with total rainfall 
amounts of 1 to 3 inches with heaviest over St. Marys county 
with less than inch NW of the metro areas toward western MD. 
Given high 6-hr FFG over 4 inches, a flood watch does not appear
necessary. Rain will begin to end from NW to SE Thu evening and
should be out of the area Fri morning. Gusty NW winds will occur
behind front late Thu night with 6-hr period of gusts of 35-45
mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Upper level flow forecast to be zonal through the extended forecast 
period. Thus, looking for several weaker, transitory systems over 
the time frame. 

Shortwave energy will be ejecting on Saturday; any precipitation 
chances will come during the morning/midday hours. High pressure 
will follow Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Return flow/warm 
advection ensuing by afternoon with precipitation possible by night 
fall. However, not all guidance sets in synch with the precipitation 
layout; thus, PoPs will be low. The attendant cold front would be 
through sometime on Monday...again with timing differences between 
GFS/ECMWF. Such a sequence suggests that Tuesday would be a day of 
high pressure, but with another shortwave/jet max lurking across the 
Great Lakes and recognizing timing variabilities of such a pattern, 
confidence slightly on the lower side. 

Temperatures likely to be on the cooler side. The warmest day, with 
near normal temperatures, will come on Monday before cold frontal 
passage. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Cigs becoming MVFR late tonight with frequent showers. MVFR cigs with
showers persist through Thu evening. Abrupt wind shift expected
with fropa late Thu night and gusts 30-35 kt for about a 6-hr
period due to pressure surge. Gusty winds 25-30 kt Fri
diminishing Fri night. 

No sig wx Fri through Mon.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds expected to strengthen tonight in southerly flow. There
could be a drop/lull in winds Thu before they strengthen again
late Thu night. A Gale Warning has been issued for late Thu
night which may need to be extended into Fri morning. Otherwise, SCA
conditions are likely to persist through Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Minor coastal flooding is expected through Thu evening as
southerly flow strengthens and water levels rise. Blowout tides
expected Fri under a strong NW flow.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ016.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for 
     MDZ011.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ017.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT 
     Thursday for ANZ531>533-536>542.
     Gale Warning from midnight Thursday night to 6 AM EDT Friday 
     for ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT 
     Thursday for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...LFR/HTS
MARINE...LFR/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR