083 FXUS61 KLWX 100123 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the western Atlantic will remain in control of the area through tonight. A cold front will cross the area late Thursday night. Hurricane Michael is expected to pass southeast of the area early Friday morning. High pressure will return for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to control the weather through tonight before it starts shifting farther east Wednesday. Under a light southeast flow, expect a repeat of the past few nights with low clouds and areas of fog/drizzle redeveloping. Density of fog however will be limited by abundant cloud cover. A few scattered showers are also possible mainly in central VA and along and west of the Blue Ridge. However most locations will remain dry. Lows in the 60s to around 70F. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Moisture will deepen on Wed as high pressure and associated subsidence inversion weakens. Anticipating an increase in shower coverage especially in the southwest as moisture increases from south to north. Will see rain/showers become more widespread late Wed night/Thu as forcing for ascent increases ahead of cdfnt and moisture deepens. In general, expecting 1 to 2 inches of rain through late Thu night. Michael will passing rapidly southeast of the area early Fri with most of its associated rainfall remaining over far southern MD and southeast VA. Turning cooler, breezy Fri with rain ending early. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The remnants of Michael will be moving across the central Chesapeake Bay and across the Delmarva Peninsula on Friday. There could be a couple of rain showers over southern Maryland, mainly early Friday. High pressure will be building into our region Friday and into the weekend, ushering in much cooler and drier air. High pressure will remain in control Saturday and Saturday night and allow for cooler temperatures with plenty of sunshine. Highs will range from the upper 50s to middle 60s Saturday. Lows will range from the lower 40s to near 50 Saturday night. The high moves to the east Sunday and Monday. A southerly flow will develop and bring moderate trends in our temperatures. The next low pressure system will move into the lower Ohio Valley Sunday, then into the Great Lakes on Monday. The associated cold front will likely remain west of the area through this forecast period, but there could be some showers at times as moisture returns ahead of the frontal system. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low stratus and areas of fog/drizzle are expected to redevelop again tonight with IFR conditions expected. Density and coverage of fog however will be limited by abundant cloud cover. Conditions will gradually improve by Wed afternoon with a few showers expected. Rain/showers Wed night into early Fri with MVFR/IFR cigs. A slight chance of t-storms also possible Thu. Cdfnt crosses the area around 06Z Fri with shifting winds and becoming breezy. A couple of rain showers will depart to the east Friday morning, but only to be followed by a gusty northwest wind with gusts possibly reaching 30 to 35 knots. VFR conditions expected Saturday. && .MARINE... Generally sub-SCA winds out of the southeast are expected through Wednesday. A few gusts may approach 20 knots this evening, but will be sporadic and brief. Winds then increase Wednesday night, and a SCA is in effect. SCA conditions remain possible Thursday and Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front and what is left of Hurricane Michael. Gale conditions possible Friday for the central Chesapeake Bay with small craft advisories possible Friday for the northern Chesapeake Bay. Small craft advisories possible Friday night for the central Chesapeake Bay. No marine hazards Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels will gradually rise another half foot through Thu with anomalies ranging from 1.5 ft in the nrn portions of bay to 2.0 ft in the southern part. Minor coastal flooding is expected through Thu night at most coastal locations. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ017. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ054. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ531>534-537>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...MM/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...MM/LFR/KLW MARINE...MM/LFR/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR