529 FXUS64 KLUB 111137 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 637 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .AVIATION... Backdoor front has eased through all of the terminals early this morning with cool, moist easterly winds in its wake. This setup has supported the development of low clouds on the Caprock. KPVW has recently seen LIFR conditions materialize, and KLBB will soon see IFR to LIFR as well. Expect cigs to gradually raise to MVFR at KPVW and KLBB by this afternoon, where they will likely remain into the evening hours. KCDS could also see stratus overspread the terminal, though it will probably be high MVFR to low VFR. Ceilings may drop back to IFR or worse late Friday night. In addition to the persistent cigs, a rogue shower can't be ruled out late today into tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018/ DISCUSSION... Drastic day to day changes will be introduced into our weather over the next week. Although we will see an increase in lift today from an increasing upper level jet streak our chances of convection will be smaller. This will be due to the low stratus currently making its way into the South Plains. Any convection today will likely be limited to the Permian Basin and points farther to the south where any surface heating will be. Low stratus will keep us cool all day today limiting any convective threat. Moist isentropic upglide will provide chances of rain showers today out of this low stratus layer or perhaps only some drizzle. This trend will continue tonight through Friday morning. The upper level jet streak will lift to the northeast on Friday leaving West Texas in a large area of large scale subsidence. At the same time, an upper level system moving across the Midwest will be sending a cold front through. We may see some brief clearing late on Friday but we will quickly get a resurgence of moisture from the remnants of Sergio. There are still differences in the exact track of the remnants of Sergio with the GFS still the farthest north track with the NAM and ECMWF farther to the south. However, the ECMWF has trended more to the north with the latest runs. This will mainly affect the area from late Friday through all day Saturday and bring a quick one to three inches of rainfall before moving out Saturday night. With recent rainfall, this could bring some flooding concerns. The strongest front of the season so far will take place on Sunday morning. It will bring in very strong surface ridging and drier air for Monday morning. A warm air advection regime over the cool surface air will be aided by an upper level trough around the four corners region. This will result in light precipitation mainly starting on Sunday and lasting through Monday. Not only that, but this front will bring temperatures well below seasonal averages. A freeze looks more likely for the southwestern South Plains with widespread 30s for both on and off the caprock on Monday morning. With precipitation chances ongoing, this could bring wintry precipitation to the southwestern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 01/23