931 FXUS64 KLUB 110543 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .AVIATION... VFR remains in the place shortly after midnight, but a backdoor front will slip through the terminals through the early morning hours. In addition to backing winds to easterly and northeasterly, stratus will fill in behind the front toward dawn. There is some uncertainty just how low these clouds will be. Both KLBB and KPVW will likely see MVFR and could dip to IFR for a period, while KCDS will favor low VFR to high MVFR. It does appear the stratus will stick around through the day and into tonight. The cooler conditions associated with the widespread cloud cover will mute deep convection chances later today/tonight, though spotty light precipitation can't be completely ruled out. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION... After a wet weekend and start to the week, we have dried out and the cool start to the day has helped to hold temperatures from warming too much this afternoon. We may be a few degrees shy of forecast max temps this afternoon. Thursday morning will be a bit warmer than this morning as the surface wind returns to the south to southeast as a lee surface trough starts to develop overnight into Thursday. This is in response to increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the next developing longwave trough across the western U.S. Enough residual moisture and converge along the surface trough will be present so that isolated thunderstorms may be possible across the western South Plains Thursday afternoon into evening. Friday will see a weak front try to push into the northern part of our forecast area in the afternoon which will disrupt the lee surface trough and bring a brief lull in precipitation chances, but this will rapidly change heading into Friday night and Saturday. There are still differences heading into the weekend on what the track of the remnants of Sergio will be with the GFS bringing the remnant surface circulation over the forecast area while the ECMWF and NAM take it just south of us. Coverage of precipitation will depend on the exact track so we will continue to see PoP values change in the forecast the next couple of days until we get better consensus on the track. Regardless, the weekend should still be pretty wet and humid thanks to the increase moisture levels and cloud cover. Locally heavy rain remains a possibility but widespread thunderstorms are not expected in the tropical environment moving over the region. As the remnants push east late Saturday into Sunday, a cold front will swing in behind the surface low and make progress southward at a pretty strong clip. Models have come in a bit faster with the frontal timing which resulted in highs on Sunday 2-4 degrees cooler than the previous forecast. Southwesterly flow aloft will keep moisture in place across the region so we may see another round of precipitation along and behind the front. Post-frontal rain remains a good chance as we keep a closed low/longwave trough across the southwestern US or Baja peninsula which will allow weak shortwaves to move over the region. Lows Monday morning will still be tricky due to the combination of post-frontal cloud cover and precipitation over the weekend so expect the location of possible sub-freezing temperatures to change with time. The highest chances will remain across the northwestern South Plains. Unsettled weather will continue through the first of next week as the closed low remains over the southwestern U.S. and a series of weak fronts push into the area. Weak disturbances will continue to swing over the region after rounding the base of the low which could help generate precipitation. Too early to tell what the coverage will be but we may keep precipitation chances through the first half of next week Jordan && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 23