147 
FXUS64 KLUB 102039
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
339 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...
After a wet weekend and start to the week, we have dried out and
the cool start to the day has helped to hold temperatures from
warming too much this afternoon. We may be a few degrees shy of
forecast max temps this afternoon. Thursday morning will be a bit
warmer than this morning as the surface wind returns to the south
to southeast as a lee surface trough starts to develop overnight
into Thursday. This is in response to increasing southwesterly
flow aloft ahead of the next developing longwave trough across the
western U.S. Enough residual moisture and converge along the
surface trough will be present so that isolated thunderstorms may
be possible across the western South Plains Thursday afternoon
into evening. Friday will see a weak front try to push into the
northern part of our forecast area in the afternoon which will
disrupt the lee surface trough and bring a brief lull in
precipitation chances, but this will rapidly change heading into
Friday night and Saturday.

There are still differences heading into the weekend on what the
track of the remnants of Sergio will be with the GFS bringing the
remnant surface circulation over the forecast area while the ECMWF
and NAM take it just south of us. Coverage of precipitation will
depend on the exact track so we will continue to see PoP amounts
change in the forecast the next couple of days until we get better
consensus on the track. Regardless, the weekend should still be
pretty wet and humid thanks to the increase moisture levels and
cloud cover. Locally heavy rain remains a possibility but
widespread thunderstorms are not expected in the tropical
environment moving over the region.  

As the remnants push east late Saturday into Sunday, a cold front
will swing in behind the surface low and make progress southward
at a pretty strong clip. Models have come in a bit faster with the
frontal timing which resulted in highs on Sunday 2-4 degrees
cooler than the previous forecast. Southwesterly flow aloft will
keep moisture in place across the region so we may see another
round of precipitation along and behind the front. Post-frontal
rain remains a good chance as we keep a closed low/longwave trough
across the southwestern US or Baja peninsula which will allow weak
shortwaves to move over the region. Lows Monday morning will still
be tricky due to the combination of post-frontal cloud cover and
precipitation over the weekend so expect the location of possible
sub-freezing temperatures to change with time. The highest chances
will remain across the northwestern South Plains.

Unsettled weather will continue through the first of next week as
the closed low remains over the southwestern U.S. and a series of
weak fronts push into the area. Weak disturbances will continue to
swing over the region after rounding the base of the low which
could help generate precipitation. Too early to tell what the
coverage will be but we may keep precipitation chances through the
first half of next week

Jordan

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

14/99