322 
FXUS64 KLUB 101137
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
637 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR will be the rule today and tonight with light winds. Low
clouds may develop toward daybreak Thursday, but this will be
addressed in future TAF issuances.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Last bit of lift finally pulling out of the region early this 
morning from the upper trough that has affected the area for several 
days. Strong dry westerly flow and subsidence will spread over the 
area later this morning in the wake of the departing trough.

Conditions will change again beginning on Thursday lasting through 
the weekend. Upper level winds will begin to back as a sharp trough 
is carved out in the western US. West Texas will be positioned 
around the exit region of an increasing upper level jet streak on 
Thursday afternoon contributing to some large scale lift. This upper 
level pattern will be conducive to moist southeasterly low level 
flow ahead of a surface trough setting up in eastern New Mexico. The 
large scale lift combined with the surface convergence in the 
surface trough will likely be enough to initiate at least some 
isolated convection late Thursday afternoon. A low level theta-e 
axis will develop extending from the surface trough in eastern New 
Mexico into the South Plains. Instability will not be something to 
write home about with mixed layer CAPEs on the order of less than 
500 J/kg. Early on Friday morning, models are showing patchy QPF 
across the area. However, an examination of isentropic surfaces show 
moist isentropic lift in the low level jet which is likely where the 
model QPF is coming from. In all likelihood, this would be very 
light rain, drizzle, or just low stratus. For the remainder of 
Friday, we get positioned in the subsident region of the upper level 
jet streak entrance region with a cold front sliding into the area.

We will begin to feel the effects of the remnants of Sergio on 
Friday night into early Saturday morning. Currently tropical storm 
Sergio was continuing to weaken and will accelerate late this week 
as it becomes absorbed in the southwestern flow aloft. It will 
generally bring a quick shot of rainfall to the area between 1 and 3 
inches area wide. Unfortunately, the latest ECMWF has differed from 
the GFS and NAM solutions bringing the remnants farther to the south 
depriving our region of the heaviest rainfall. However, given the 
recent rainfall, it would not take as much rain to create additional 
flooding issues.

Early next week, an upper level trough moving across southern Canada 
will send a strong cold front through West Texas early on Sunday. 
Models have been consistent in bringing a 1032mb surface ridge 
overhead or nearly overhead on Monday morning. This could lead to a 
light freeze for part of the area, particularly across the extreme 
southwestern Texas Panhandle with widespread 30s on the caprock. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

01/23