076 
FXUS64 KLUB 091729
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.AVIATION...

Tricky TAF forecast this afternoon with a cold front moving
through the area. Winds have shifted at PVW and should be to LBB
around 19Z then CDS. Behind the front winds are northerly around 
10 knots and ceilings have dropped to 400 to 600 feet. Included
IFR ceilings at all sites through this evening. Have clouds
scattering out around 0Z but have little confidence in this
timing. Scattered light showers may impact all sites this
afternoon but should not have any major impacts. 

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Main batch of lift was currently moving through the region but will 
likely persist off the caprock after 12Z continuing rain chances and 
possible flooding into the later morning hours. An area of noted 
subsidence was observed on water vapor imagery behind the large 
scale lift. However, a portion of the upper level lift closer to the 
center of the low will wrap around the system today. We will not 
totally dry out and this continued lift, although weaker, will keep 
light precipitation chances through the afternoon hours. This area 
of lift will favor the extreme southern Texas Panhandle and northern 
portions of the South Plains.

A cold front and invading surface ridge today will quickly dry out 
the lower levels of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, the upper level 
trough axis will finally pass overhead tonight giving way to drier 
westerly flow on Wednesday. Upper level winds will back on Thursday 
in advance of another trough diving down the Sierra Nevada range. 
This will end up providing a good southeasterly fetch of low level 
moisture on Thursday. The formation of a surface trough and increase 
in jet level winds will increase the overall lift available on 
Thursday. We will lose some of that lift on Friday before attention 
turns to Sergio. Hurricane Sergio is currently a category 1 
hurricane around 16N in the eastern Pacific and will quickly gain 
steam as it becomes absorbed in the larger scale trough. Models are 
now bringing the remnants of Sergio directly over the South Plains 
on Saturday dumping anywhere between one and three inches of 
rainfall.

A sharp cold front early Sunday will bring in strong surface ridging 
for Monday morning which may bring a possible freeze to the 
southwestern Texas Panhandle and perhaps widespread temperatures in 
the 30s elsewhere.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/08