674 FXUS66 KLOX 110619 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1119 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS...10/804 PM. Below normal temperature will continue through Thursday. Offshore flow on Friday will bring a little warming into the weekend. Night through morning low clouds will return to the coasts until Friday. High surf likely through Friday. && .SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...10/827 PM. Marine layer depth in excess of 4000 feet combined with strengthening onshore flow and approaching upper level trough will likely bring low clouds and fog well inland overnight into Thursday morning reaching the lower coastal slopes. Current satellite imagery showing extensive cloud coverage for areas north of Point Conception this evening extending well inland across the SLO county interior valleys. For areas south of Point Conception, low clouds are more scattered in nature this evening due to weaker marine inversion. For areas that do see low clouds tonight into Thursday morning, there is a fairly good chance of patchy drizzle just about anywhere, especially upslope areas. Would not be surprised to see a few areas report measurable light rain, so carrying 10-15 percent pops to account for this possibility. Best chance of measurable light rain would be LA basin and Central Coast. With upper trough over region and deep low level moisture, should see plenty of stratocumulus clouds across the region in the afternoon hours, along with temperatures on the cooler side. *** From previous discussion *** Then a quick one day reversal to offshore flow Friday will result in some northeast winds but well below advisory levels. The main impact will be to warm things up 10-20 degrees at lower elevations with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. Some afternoon clouds possible south of Pt Conception as the upper low is positioned favorably to pull in some Sergio moisture from the southeast. On Saturday the upper low will be about 300 miles southwest of Pt Conception and still pulling moisture in from the remnants of Sergio over northern Mexico. That moisture could start interacting with some upper level energy from the low to spawn some showers south of Pt Conception. Can't rule out thunderstorms as models do show some instability but will leave that out for now. Probably not a lot of clearing Saturday southern areas with temps back down to the 60s and 70s. Similar temps up north but with less clouds, though some increasing low clouds near the coast with a southerly surge. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...10/127 PM. Precip chances to end Saturday night as the lower moves inland over Baja and drier northeast flow takes over. Sunday should be a much sunnier and warmer day with some gusty sub-advisory level northeast winds possible across LA/Ventura counties. Even warmer and windier Monday/Tuesday as offshore flow increases with still decent upper level support. Highs expected to warm up well into the 80s at lower elevations Monday and possibly some lower 90s across parts of LA/Ventura Counties Tuesday. If models keep this solution going we'll likely need wind advisories across LA/Ventura Counties both days and possibly a fire weather watch as humidities are expected to drop into the single digits. Cooler with lighter winds Wednesday as offshore flow and support aloft decrease. && .AVIATION...11/0618Z. At 0550Z, at KLAX, there was a 4500 ft deep moist layer with no inversion. Low confidence in all non desert TAFs. Cigs between 020 and 045 are all equally possible and will likely form and reform at different hgts through 16Z. There is a 20 percent chc of cigs between 015-020. Variable sct-bkn conds are likely through 00Z with less cloud cover likely after 00Z. There is a 20 percent chc of drizzle near hier trrn. KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs between 020 and 045 are all equally possible and will likely form and reform at different hgts through 16Z. There is a 20 percent chc of cigs between 015-020. Variable sct-bkn conds are likely through 00Z with less cloud cover likely after 00Z. Good confidence that east wind component will remain under 8kt. KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs between 020 and 045 are all equally possible and will likely form and reform at different hgts through 16Z. There is a 20 percent chc of cigs between 015-020. Variable sct-bkn conds are likely through 00Z with less cloud cover likely after 00Z. There is a 20 percent chc of drizzle through 16Z. && .MARINE...10/803 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Monday, except for a 40% chance of SCA winds Sunday afternoon and evening. For the Inner Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Monday. Large, moderate-period south to southwest swell from Tropical Cyclone Sergio will affect much of the waters beginning tonight. The swell is expected to build through early Friday, then diminish Friday night into Saturday. && .BEACHES...10/806 PM. Hazardous surf conditions including dangerous rip currents will continue through much of this week as SW-S swell from Tropical Cyclone Sergio moves through the waters. Surf and swell will build through Friday midday, with high surf expected starting Thursday evening. Surf heights are expected to be between 5 to 8 feet with sets to 10 feet during the peak of the event Thursday night and Friday, with the highest surf along south to southwest facing beaches. Surf should begin to subside Friday night, but there is a chance that dangerous and strong rip currents could linger into Saturday. In addition, there will be the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding, especially Friday morning when the peak surf coincides with high tides. A High Surf Advisory will be in effect from Thursday evening through late Friday evening. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Friday evening for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 7 AM PDT Thursday through Thursday evening for zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect from 8 PM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Friday for zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED). Dangerous rip currents are possible Saturday across south and southwest facing beaches as additional swell energy from Sergio moves into the coastal waters. Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected Sunday through Tuesday with critical fire weather conditions possible. && $$ PUBLIC...Gomberg/MW AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Smith BEACHES...Smith SYNOPSIS...Delerme weather.gov/losangeles