864 FXUS66 KLOX 102033 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 133 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS...10/747 AM. Cooler than normal conditions will continue through Thursday. Offshore flow on Friday will bring a little warming into the weekend. Patchy overnight and morning low clouds and fog is expected along the coasts until Friday. High surf is likely today through Friday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...10/116 PM. Deep marine layer in excess of 3000' along with increasing onshore flow and cooling aloft with the approaching upper low will keep much of the area mired in clouds and well below normal temps through Thursday. The inversion is still very weak based on the latest LAX profiler sounding so the stratus layer may not be as solid as it can be but overall a mostly cloudy forecast will suffice at least by later tonight. There's also some lift in the boundary layer early Thursday so at least some drizzle or maybe even some isolated measurable rain is possible, especially in upslope areas. Then a quick one day reversal to offshore flow Friday will result in some northeast winds but well below advisory levels. The main impact will be to warm things up 10-20 degrees at lower elevations with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. Some afternoon clouds possible south of Pt Conception as the upper low is positioned favorably to pull in some Sergio moisture from the southeast. On Saturday the upper low will be about 300 miles southwest of Pt Conception and still pulling moisture in from the remnants of Sergio over northern Mexico. That moisture could start interacting with some upper level energy from the low to spawn some showers south of Pt Conception. Can't rule out thunderstorms as models do show some instability but will leave that out for now. Probably not a lot of clearing Saturday southern areas with temps back down to the 60s and 70s. Similar temps up north but with less clouds, though some increasing low clouds near the coast with a southerly surge. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...10/127 PM. Precip chances to end Saturday night as the lower moves inland over Baja and drier northeast flow takes over. Sunday should be a much sunnier and warmer day with some gusty sub-advisory level northeast winds possible across LA/Ventura counties. Even warmer and windier Monday/Tuesday as offshore flow increases with still decent upper level support. Highs expected to warm up well into the 80s at lower elevations Monday and possibly some lower 90s across parts of LA/Ventura Counties Tuesday. If models keep this solution going we'll likely need wind advisories across LA/Ventura Counties both days and possibly a fire weather watch as humidities are expected to drop into the single digits. Cooler with lighter winds Wednesday as offshore flow and support aloft decrease. && .AVIATION...10/1854Z. At 1720Z, at KLAX, the marine layer depth was 3700 feet. The top of the inversion was 4800 feet with a temperature of 10 degrees Celsius. Rather low confidence in the marine cloud forecast at 18z this morning. A weak inversion is resulting in little temporal or height consistency regarding the ceilings across the coastal and valley locations this morning. There are no other issues for the aviation forecast. Skies may vary from sct-bkn in many areas until early this evening when the skies go back to bkn-ovc. The ceilings will range from MVFR to VFR. KLAX...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30 percent chance of the marine clouds going broken plus or minus two or more hours from the forecasted time. KBUR...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30 percent chance of the marine clouds going broken plus or minus two or more hours from the forecasted time. && .MARINE...10/902 AM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday. For the Inner Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Sunday. Large, moderate-period south to southwest swell will affect much of the waters beginning tonight. The swell is expected to build through early Friday, then diminish Friday night into Saturday. && .BEACHES...10/903 AM. Hazardous surf conditions including dangerous rip currents will continue through much of this week. Surf and swell will build through at least Thursday night. The increased surf and dangerous rip conditions will be from Tropical Storm Sergio. Estimates of surf heights between 5 to 8 feet with sets to 10 feet during the peak of the event Thursday night and Friday. The highest surf will be observed at south and southwest facing beaches. Surf should begin to subside late Friday, but there is a chance that dangerous and strong rip currents could linger into Saturday. In addition, there will be the potential for some minor to moderate coastal flooding during peak of the high surf combined with high tides. A High Surf Advisory will be issued this afternoon. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Friday afternoon for zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED). Dangerous rip currents are possible Saturday across south and southwest facing beaches as additional swell energy from Sergio moves into the coastal waters. Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected Sunday through Tuesday with critical fire weather conditions possible. && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Sweet MARINE...Sweet BEACHES...Sweet SYNOPSIS...jld weather.gov/losangeles