297 FXUS65 KLKN 092307 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 407 PM PDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Wet and cool for the next few days before drier and warmer conditions by the end of the week, continuing into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Closed low continues to weaken and open as it pushes through northern Utah this evening. This will lead to a gradual decrease in shower activity through the evening and into the overnight hours. As the front continues to sag south and east, expect snow levels to gradually drop into the higher elevation valleys around 6000ft and all mountains. A very light dusting of snow will be possible around 6000ft with several inches expected in the mountains. Significant impacts are not expected, however we cannot rule out a few slick spots on the high elevation passes, such as Pequop, Secret, and HD Summit. By tomorrow morning, snow levels will rise rapidly as the sun comes up. A few lingering showers will be possible for extreme eastern Nevada, but will end there by afternoon. By Wednesday evening through Thursday, another shortwave will dive south out of Oregon, strengthening the western portion of the trough. This will resume the threat for isolated valley rain showers and mtn snow showers. Additional snowfall accumulations will be possible across the Jarbidge Mountains and the higher terrain in central Nevada. Model confidence remains marginal, as the evolution of how the shortwave interacts with the trough is still unclear. Regardless, light precipitation is expected to continue across eastern and central nevada. Temps will remain below average through the short term. .LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday. This long term period will be mainly dry. There is good model consensus on the dry status, however there are differences in the positioning of an upper level trough throughout most of this time- frame. Thursday night. A synoptic trough will be essentially oriented east-west across the west with the low center backsliding to the west coast of central California. There could be some remnant shower activity drawn up around the exiting low, reaching into White pine and northern Nye Counties. Elsewhere will begin drying out. Low temperatures will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s. Friday through Tuesday. The upper low center of the laterally- oriented trough will retrograde well off the Pacific coast...how far out to sea varies between models...then dig south and move inland via Baja California. This entire period could be dry as the jet core splits well to the north and south of the LKN CWFA. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s. Low temperatures will range from the mid 20s to the mid 30s. && .AVIATION...A low pressure area will continue to bring rain showers through early evening, mainly affecting KEKO and KELY. Showers will be tapering off Tuesday evening. Skies may clear out enough for some fog to develop in the vicinity of KEKO and KELY before daybreak Wednesday. As the system continues moving east, VFR conditions are expected at all stations Wednesday afternoon. Shower activity may increase again Wednesday evening as another weak system moves through. && .FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather concerns remain moderated, due to widespread wetting rain across a majority of the area. Additionally, RH recoveries will be good to excellent across the region. Another weak system will pass through the region Wednesday night and Thursday, but will primarily impact central Nevada. Light valley rain and mtn snow will be possible, with breezy winds. RH recoveries will once again continue to be good to excellent. && .HYDROLOGY...The threat for minor flooding of area burn scars remains at least through this evening, before the showers gradually diminish across the region. Burn scars south of I80 have the highest risk of minor flooding, however the overall threat is low. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ 94/92/92/94