646 FXUS65 KLKN 091941 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1241 PM PDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Wet and cool for the next few days before drier and warmer conditions by the end of the week, continuing into the weekend. && .UPDATE...Increased POPs as rain continues to expand in coverage and also expanded thunderstorm coverage to account for isolated lightning strikes pushing into the I80 corridor. Issued an SPS for gusty downslope winds and also made the appropriate changes in the grids across Humboldt County. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 235 AM / SYNOPSIS...Wet and cool for the next few days before drier and warmer conditions by the end of the week, continuing into the weekend. SHORT TERM...This morning through Wednesday Main Concern or Impact: Flash Flooding on Sugarloaf burn scar; border line adv winds Brief synoptic overview: Frontal boundary sags south into the CWA today as a strong polar front jet dives south into Western Nevada. By tonight, the front reaches central Nevada (with surface low in central UT) before stalling out over southern Nevada on Wed. A 500mb trof digs southeast into the state Wednesday afternoon, developing a surface wave along the stalled boundary, which lifts northeastward into central Nevada by Wed night. Changes to Previous Forecast: Minor adjustments to POPs, QPF, and snow levels. Also, increased winds slightly for all areas today, and added some thunder in northeastern corner of Elko county. Forecast Confidence & Model Discussion: Overall confidence is above average. Confidence remains low on rain rates and amounts over burn scars, thus no flash flood watch is in effect. Near average on snow amounts with decent agreement with WPC snow probabilities. Sensible Weather/Impacts: Precip Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms in northeastern NV today through tomorrow. This precip reaches central NV by tonight. Another round of rain begins Wednesday night in central NV. Precip totals of a half of inch or more are possible in the higher elevations, especially in northeastern Elko county. Snow amounts of 6-12 inches for the Jarbidge Mtn...4-8 inches possible for the Rubies, Snake, and Schell Ranges...all above 7500-8000ft...and for the entire time frame (48 hours). Snow levels do make it just below 6000ft by tonight and early tomorrow morning so a few flakes may mix in the higher valleys where precip remains. Winds Windy conditions today, nearing adv levels is a few areas. Gusts could exceed 40kts in the higher elevations at times. Less wind on Wednesday but still breezy out of the west. Temps Below normal with 50s to low 60s (40s in the colder locations). Overnights low primary in the 30s to near 40. LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Monday. Positively tilted broad trough over the inter-mountain west Wednesday night, progged to stretch and expand southwestward on Thursday, with a closed low breaking off from the main flow by Friday afternoon. Upper level low is expected to be over or near the southern CA coast on Friday, with main jet energy remaining over the northern US. The result for northern and central NV will be lingering showers over portions of eastern and central NV Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon, with a few lingering showers over east- central NV Thursday evening, tapering off overnight. There may also be a slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon over east- central NV, generally White Pine. As high pressure builds in from the west Friday through Monday, expect fewer clouds, cooler overnight lows, and warmer afternoon high temperatures. Fire Weather...Widespread wetting rain, cool temperatures, and accumulating snows at or above 7,500ft are expected today and tonight, tomorrow across northeastern NV with some spreading into central Nevada. Gusty winds will accompany these conditions with gust exceeding 40 kts along the ridge lines at times across all zones today. More wetting rains expected Wednesday night into Thursday across central Nevada. AVIATION...Weather system will bring lower CIGs and scattered rain showers to mainly KBAM, KEKO, and KELY. KWMC will be on the edge of the weather system and could see just VCSH at times. CIGs will remain VFR but could briefly fall to MVFR in heavier showers. Gusty winds (20-30kts) out of the west are expected at all sites this afternoon. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 94/99