964 FXUS64 KLIX 101115 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 615 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .SHORT TERM... All the talk this morning is on Hurricane Michael and rightfully so as the hurricane has deepened overnight to a cat4 and the latest recon passes are showing a continued deepening this morning as it approaches the coast. This is all well within the hurricane centers forecasted variables. This is an extremely dangerous scenario and unfortunately there will be no good outcome for people and property along the Florida panhandle or locations farther inland along its path. This storm is causing the pressure field between it and the cold front just to our west to flatten and become very broad. Basically this leads to a large area of just lower pressure which induces no gradient which in turn causes the winds to rapidly collapse as one moves west of the hurricanes' CDO. But as the large high behind the front moves southeast, it will begin to tighten the gradient once again causing winds to rise but out of the northwest with dry and cool air advection. This does not occur until this evening though so we should have one more day of warm temps near 90F today due to the strong subsidence between Michael and the cold front...but alas...summer has overstayed its welcome and the cold front will begin to slice through the cwa by early evening and should be through by Thursday morning with a very noticeable change in sensible conditions. The nice weather will stay with us through much of the weekend. Another cold front will make its way to the area Sunday night or Monday. There should be some sh/ts along the boundary as it approaches but begin to dissipate as it moves into the area. This is a very normal scenario this time of year as stability develops from the strong high bridging the southern end of these fronts. This mainly occurs during October into early November. It is also the reason that our thunderstorm numbers lower quite a bit during this same time frame. && .AVIATION... Currently, all terminals at VFR, and outside of scattered showers, should remain that way for much, if not all of the forecast period. Cannot rule out a period of MVFR ceilings this morning as cumulus field develops, but overall, should see improving conditions. Wind gusts above 25 knots likely at KGPT, and cannot be ruled out at KASD, and the New Orleans terminals, but even this should subside after 00z. 35 && .MARINE... Winds coming around to the north, and coastal flood threat should be gone by next high tide cycle. Will keep Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings in place but expect these to be dropped later today, to be replaced with Small Craft Advisories until seas subside. There will still be periods of Exercise Caution headlines with the cold air advection into Friday, with quieter conditions through the weekend. 35 && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Orange. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Monitoring potential impacts from Hurricane Michael. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 87 62 78 54 / 30 10 0 0 BTR 88 63 80 54 / 20 10 0 0 ASD 88 67 82 57 / 30 10 10 0 MSY 89 70 82 63 / 30 10 0 0 GPT 88 69 83 60 / 40 20 10 0 PQL 86 70 84 57 / 50 20 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ040- 050-058-060>062-064-066>070-072. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ069-070. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ538-550- 552-555-570-572. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ557-575-577. Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ532-536. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ080>082. Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ080>082. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ550-552- 555-570-572. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ575-577. Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ536. && $$