635 FXUS64 KLIX 092056 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 356 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Hurricane Michael continues to move through the eastern Gulf. At 1pm it had a minimum central pressure of 965mb with max sustained sfc winds of 110mph. Broad high pressure is centered over the western Atlantic east of the DELMARVA and New England states. Weak sfc low developing over the Central Plains. A cold front is dropping through the southern Plains. Two main features in the mid levels remain, L/W trough dominating the western half of the CONUS with the trough axis draped south across the Rockies. Ridge is still sitting over the western Atlantic. /CAB/ && .DISCUSSION...Even though impacts across our region will be minimal Michael is still the focus of the forecast. Overall we have seen mainly scattered light showers and windy conditions over much of the open waters. Tides have been an issue all day. Hurricane Michael continues to move just west of due north and is expected to continue to follow a path between the ridge to the east and the approaching the L/W trough to the west. At some point overnight Michael should begin to turn to due north and possibly north-northeast before sunrise. Additional strengthening is still forecast as Michael approaches the FL panhandle tomorrow. Overall impacts should be minimal outside of tides. Winds will back around to northeast and then north overnight. Coastal MS remains in the Tropical Storm watch but overall most of the area will likely not see tropical storm force winds outside of possibly a few gusts associated with any squalls overnight tonight or more so tomorrow. Have decided to issue a wind advisory for Lower Plaquemines and St Benard parishes as both of these areas will have winds coming right off the water and have a better chance of seeing gusts of 30-40mph tomorrow. Winds may be a little breezy across the eastern half of the CWA tomorrow if we remain dry with some sun poking through. The back side of tropical systems can usually be breezy even if it is dry as the sun would allow winds to mix down from aloft leading to gusty conditions. Michael will quickly pull off to the northeast tomorrow night and Thursday and a cold front will be on the way. Michael will aid in dragging it through the region and as has been advertised we will see our first real taste of Autumn. Biggest chance this forecast period is to drastically lower morning lows Fri and Sat. Guidance has consistently been well below the going forecast and the blends have decided to stop fighting this. Lows Fri and Sat will be well into the 50s for at least the northern half of the CWA while other locations will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. We will see temps begin to moderate Saturday afternoon with Sunday much warmer than Fri and Sat however still nicer than what we have seen the past few weeks. Another cold front will be on the door step early next week and there are indication this front could even bring colder temps with lows possibly down into the upper 40s across northern portions of the area. /CAB/ && .AVIATION...Most of the terminals are deal with VFR conditions however cant rule out tempo MVFR cigs and vsbys thid evening, especially with any passing shra. Breezy winds out of the east will become northeast and then north overnight. Main concern with wind will be with any shra which will have the possibility of bringing down wind gusts of 30kts. Low cigs may become a problem during the early morning hours but expect it to improve shortly after sunrise. && .MARINE...Biggest change this forecast period is upgrading some of our outer waters to a Tropical Storm Warning (GMZ557/577/575), Will leave the others that are in the Tropical Storm Watch in the watch. Small craft advisories will remain in place for all other zones except the tidal lakes. Michael has been strengthening all day and at 4pm had max sustained winds of 115 mph. Additional strengthening is forecast prior to landfall over the FL panhandle. With the close approach of Michael we will see winds respond in the eastern open water and mainly the outer waters. Winds could gust to near 50kts in those two outer zones while seas could be well abv 20ft. Tides continue to be an issue across all of the coast. We have been running 1-3 feet abv normal for the last 24-36 hrs and this will likely continue through at least tomorrow. One more strong high tide cycle will occur from this evening through the night and these tides will be similar if not slightly higher to last nights and early this mornings. With that we have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory through Wednesday night. It may need to be cancelled tomorrow night but felt better getting it out through at least the next two high tides. These tides are from the persistent strong easterly winds we have had. All of this water has piled into the region and will right now not be able to go anywhere thanks to Michael moving towards the FL panhandle. /CAB/ && .DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Orange. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Hurricane Michael. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for Slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rain; direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 86 65 79 / 30 40 10 0 BTR 74 87 67 82 / 30 30 10 0 ASD 75 87 70 84 / 30 40 10 10 MSY 77 88 73 83 / 30 30 10 0 GPT 77 88 72 84 / 40 40 20 10 PQL 77 85 72 84 / 40 50 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ040-050- 058-060>062-064-066>070-072. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ069-070. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ538-552-555- 572. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ550-570. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ557-575-577. Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ532-536. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ080>082. Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ080>082. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ552-555-572. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ570. Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ575-577. Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ536. && $$