783 FXUS64 KLCH 101158 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 658 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... For 12z TAF issuance. && .AVIATION... Local 88Ds show just a smattering of light showers across the area at this time...not expected to impact any of the TAF sites in the short term. Additional development is noted crossing interior sern TX...short range guidance is not showing this as making it as far ewd as KAEX as drier air gradually filters in from the west...we shall see. Otherwise ceilings should gradually rise/erode through the day...main issue will be elevated nrly winds behind the frontal passage which will linger through sunrise before relaxing. 25 && .CLIMATE... Here's the current string of consecutive days with temps at or above 70F, up to and including October 9th: LCH - 148 (last time in the 60s: May 14th) BPT - 146 (May 16th) ARA - 125 (June 6th) LFT - 124 (June 7th) && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018/ DISCUSSION...Major Hurricane Micheal is moving toward the Florida Panhandle this morning while a weak cold front limps east across western Louisiana. A stronger cold front is quickly moving south and east across north Texas. Hurricane Micheal will continue on the northerly track into and across the southeast states today and tonight while finally a more seasonable air mass moves into the north central gulf coast. Rain chances across the local area will decrease through the day as progressively drier air filters in and subsidence occurs around the hurricane. Temperatures will remain summery with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, however tonight lows will be in the upper 50s to near 70 at the coast. This will be the first night where areas along the south of I-10 fall below 70 since May breaking a record streak. Temperatures will fall to around climo values. Thursday through Saturday will also remain dry with temperatures close to climate averages for the date, however rain is expected to return late in the weekend as another cold front approaches. Sunday night or Monday the next front is expected to push through the region. Models differ a bit on the timing, however both the GFS and EURO the front will push into the southern gulf for now. Slightly below normal temperatures will be possible early to mid next week behind this front with even some 40s possible in the east Texas Lakes and CenLA by Tuesday Morning. MARINE...A moderate east flow and waves from Hurricane Micheal has pushed tide levels to around 2 feet above normal along the coast, however with winds becoming more north and northwest today tides will gradually subside. Tide levels are still expected to remain elevated through the next cycle with levels at 1 to 1.5 feet above normal possible, therefore the coastal flood adv has been extended until 0Z. Across the coastal waters seas from Micheal are elevated. Wave height are 6 to 12 feet well offshore this morning, however today as the cyclone moves into Florida waves will decrease locally. An SCA is in effect through 0Z. Seas are expected to fall into the 3 to 6 feet range this evening beyond 20NM. A cold front will push across the coastal waters today. This will cause north winds to increase tonight and remain elevated into Thursday night. Small craft should exercise caution during that period. Another period of elevated winds offshore is expected this weekend as low pressure moves across the plains and a another cold front approaches the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 87 61 77 54 / 30 0 0 0 LCH 88 65 82 57 / 20 0 0 0 LFT 90 65 81 56 / 30 0 0 0 BPT 88 64 81 60 / 10 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ041- 052>054-073-074. TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ215- 216. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ470-472- 475. Small Craft Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ450-452- 455. && $$ AVIATION...04